White-Knuckle Race For Governor, Lamont By 4 In Q Poll

Most women want Ned, most men want Bob. Overall, it’s a nail gnawer.

From the Q Poll: See questionnaire and demographics here.

Democrat Ned Lamont is on the plus side of a too-close-to-call Connecticut governor’s race, with 47 percent of likely voters to Republican Bob Stefanowski’s 43 percent and 7 percent for independent candidate Oz Griebel, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

This compares to a 47 – 39 percent Lamont lead over Stefanowski among likely voters, with 11 percent for Griebel, in an October 10 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pe-ack) University Poll.

Today, women back Lamont over Stefanowski 55 – 34 percent, with 7 percent for Griebel. Men back Stefanowski over Lamont 51 – 38 percent, with 7 percent for Griebel.

Lamont tops Stefanowski 90 – 4 percent among Democrats, with 5 percent for Griebel. Stefanowski leads Lamont 93 – 5 percent among Republicans, with 2 percent for Griebel. Independent voters go 43 percent for Stefanowski, 38 percent for Lamont and 13 percent for Griebel.

Only 4 percent of Connecticut likely voters remain undecided, but 13 percent of those who name a candidate for governor say they might change their mind in the next week.

“This race is looking a lot like the last two elections for governor in Connecticut–a real nail-biter,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.

“The race is close among independent voters. For Bob Stefanowski to pull ahead, the Republican must do better among this key swing group in blue Connecticut.

“Independent candidate Oz Griebel is no longer in double digits. Will he end up fading by Election Day, as often happens to third party candidates? If so, that could end up benefiting Democrat Ned Lamont, who is the second choice of Griebel voters.”

U.S. Senate Race

In the Connecticut U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Chris Murphy leads business owner Matthew Corey, the Republican challenger, 56 – 41 percent among likely voters.

This compares to a 57 – 42 percent lead for Sen. Murphy in an October 10 Quinnipiac University poll.

Today, Murphy is ahead 96 – 3 percent among Democrats and 54 – 42 percent among independent voters. Republicans back Corey 89 – 9 percent.

Only 3 percent of Connecticut likely voters remain undecided and 6 percent of likely voters who name a candidate say they might change their mind in the next week.

From October 22 – 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,201 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.