How About Election Predictions?

Ballot question headquarters
The side-by-side Stratford Avenue headquarters for the ballot question. Vote no, urges one window; vote yes, proclaims the other.

The eve of the election is upon us, the majority of the work is finished: door knocking, phone calls, lawn signs, mail pieces, radio, television. Field operations are poised to hit the ground, final phone calls will flood districts. Rev. Al Sharpton, Governor Dannel Malloy and Mayor Bill Finch rallied Dems at Mount Aery Baptist Church Sunday night. Six days ago many voters were under water or running for cover from Sandy’s wrath. Everything might not be quite normal, but close to it. The presidential race nationally appears close. In Connecticut the U.S. Senate battle between Republican Linda McMahon and Democrat Chris Murphy appears close to replace a retiring Joe Lieberman. And in the state’s largest city voters will decide a historic ballot question for the future selection of school board members.

Never before in Bridgeport–be it a mayoral race or any other–has so much dough been spent to sway voters. How many of Bridgeport’s roughly 70,000 registered voters will show up Tuesday? And how many will vote on the ballot question? Using the 2008 presidential turnout in Bridgeport as a model, roughly 40,000 residents cast a ballot. Will there be a big dropoff from those who cast a ballot for president to those who vote for the ballot question? The tallies could very well be decided by the forces that best remind electors approaching polling areas to cast a vote.

“Don’t forget to vote yes!”

“Don’t forget to vote no!”

And so it will go in front of 24 polling locations. Yes means the mayor will choose school board members. No means voters will elect them.

(A video from the mischievous former City Councilman Joel “Speedy” Gonzalez)

So how about predictions for your favorite races? Let’s start a little contest for the ballot question. Will yes win and by how many votes? Will no win and by how many votes? The winner will receive a copy of my book Only In Bridgeport because that’s what we’re all about, aren’t we? You already have a copy? No problem, present it as a holiday gift, present it to your favorite pol with a Mickey (oops), use it for firewood, use it for any reason you deem necessary. And oh yeah, I’ll even throw in dinner at your favorite city restaurant.

So what say you?



  1. The NO’s have it! 20,000 NO, 10,000 YES.

    Total Bridgeport turnout–about 30,000 (40-45%)

    Democrats sweep all positions on the Bridgeport ballot, with 90+% of the vote (except for Murphy, who will beat McMahon in Bridgeport by a narrow margin of 55%-45% and will lose to her by about the same margin, statewide). Himes will beat Obsitnik in the Fourth by about 60%-40%.

    It should be a pretty good day for Bridgeport and the state, with Democrats taking all of the federal races, except for the Murphy-McMahon race.

  2. No on the Charter question but more like a 53%-47% split.
    Obama, Himes, Murphy Sweep in BEPO, with Murphy bringing DOWN the aggregate percentage overall.

    Himes clobbers Obsitnik by 70%-30% in Bridgeport.
    Himes wins in the 4th by 55%-45%.

    Obama clobbers Romney by 70%-30% in Bridgeport.
    Obama wins the State by 65%-35% or so.
    Obama wins election 53%-47%.

    Murphy wins Bridgeport by 55%-45%.
    Murphy wins by the skin of his teeth in CT 52%-48%

    I will probably regret this. I already do.

  3. Obama wins the city carrying 80% or more and he wins reelection carrying Ohio Ohio Ohio. Himes wins by carrying the city with 80% or more and running well in Stamford and Norwalk. Murphy wins the city with 77 to 80% of the vote and running up the numbers in major cities and becoming Sen.

    Obama 84% Romney 16%

    Himes 82% Obsitnik 18%

    Murphy 80% Linda 20%

  4. I have a better chance of winning the lottery than Murphy only getting anything in the 50%. He will win the city with at least 70% of the vote and that’s just being kind ’cause he can get 80% of the vote in Bridgeport because if Obama hits 84% trust me you will not see a 10-point drop off for others on the Dem ballot.

  5. Less than 40% of total votes cast will address the charter.
    Fewer people voting than in ’08.
    NO vote takes it by a strand of hair that is left on Lennie’s head!

  6. Oh, and the turnout will be 30% or so. I will also be scalping tickets (oops did I say that?) to the Grimaldiball show at the sewage treatment plant, if in fact the opportunity presents itself.

  7. I should have added: A win by Obama/Biden, nationally–55%-45%. The Democrats come close to re-taking the House and retain the Senate (losing only one seat to the R’s.)

  8. What planet are half of you living on?! Murphy only getting 50% of the vote in Bridgeport??? Did you take your crazy pills this morning? Murphy will win Bridgeport in a landslide and if he does beat McMahon overall it will be BECAUSE OF Bridgeport! The prez ain’t gonna win nationally by 10%!!! Do any of you follow national news? It will be much closer than that. Charter question will be close too, but the Yes vote will win.

    1. No need to get testy, Booster. We all have the right to our own interpretation of the facts. Your opinion is taken with a dignified acceptance, without our asking if you took your meds. AND btw I did not say Obama will win by 10%. But I do think Murphy could have done a better job. He has not earned a landslide win in BEPO or anywhere else in the state. I do think he will win though. Negative campaigning works, no matter what you think of it, and that is what McMahon did, subsequently forced Murphy to do. Say what you like, and I hope you are right, but for the Love of God give people the right to have an opinion that differs from yours without attacking them.

  9. I will vote tomorrow and hope all OIB readers will, too.
    Since I continue to be interested in “financial issues,” I guess I am interested in how much has been spent by the respective forces on the ballot, as regards candidates and the Charter question.
    OIB has reported some numbers during the past week about dollars raised or expended by Charter YES ($500,000) to produce such a vote as well as on Charter NO ($125-150,000). If these estimates (or actuals) are anywhere near right, and 30,000 votes are cast on the Charter question (probably a high estimate), did you ever think $20 or more was spent to influence each vote cast???

    Three reasons for my NO vote tomorrow are in this brief essay: APPOINTMENTS, ACCOUNTABILITY and AUDITING (Internal) = NO vote
    Appointments, Accountability, and Auditing (Internal) = NO vote

    The Mayor currently has the Charter authority to APPOINT City residents to 135 positions with set terms to represent their neighbors on a variety of public safety, land use, environmental and similar issues. Currently fewer than 25% of those positions are filled by people serving an unexpired term. The rest of the posts are vacant or have people who have not been reappointed (or publicly evaluated for their performance) for as many as ten years! The MAYOR IS FAILING THE CURRENT APPOINTMENT PROCESS, WHY GIVE HIM MORE APPOINTMENT RESPONSIBILITIES? Vote NO!

    Under the Charter the Mayor is responsible for sending monthly financial reports of expenses, revenues, and variances by the fourth Friday of each month (and that includes the final fiscal year-ending June report). During the past three years, the Mayor has failed in this simple duty at least 50% of the time. How can the City Council, even if they were trained and motivated to do so, perform any type of REGULAR fiscal analysis without timely and comprehensive info? THE MAYOR FAILS ACCOUNTABILITY FOR FISCAL MATTERS WITH TAXPAYERS CURRENTLY, WHY ASK HIM TO BE ACCOUNTABLE FOR ANOTHER $300 MILLION OF TAXPAYER AND GRANT FUNDS FOR EDUCATION, WITHOUT CHECK OR BALANCE? Vote NO!

    Mayor Finch, early in his first term eliminated the position of Internal Auditor and failed to tell the people why. He continued to dishonestly include inaccurate language in submitted budgets about such internal control positions until last year. The internal auditor position had Ordinance-assigned duties including auditing and reporting on City purchases that have not been carried out by Mayor Finch. What the City claims it spent in past years does not check out with purchasing records on simple accounts like City Council stipends or on important accounts like payments to Utilities where we have uncovered hundreds of thousands of reporting discrepancies. THE MAYOR IS FAILING IN HANDLING OF FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS IN THE M.U.N.I.S. SYSTEM AND THE CITY WILL NOT PROVIDE FULL MANAGEMENT REPORTS AND CITY RESPONSE TO EXTERNAL AUDITORS ON THE COMPREHENSIVE ANNUAL FINANCIAL REPORT WITHOUT FREEDOM OF INFORMATION LANGUAGE. Vote NO!

    The Mayor is failing us today. Why would anyone give up their BOE vote in favor of an appointment process by a Mayor who is earning failing grades on his governance report card? Vote NO! Hold on to your vote. Become informed!

  10. There is no doubt Obama will win Connecticut but not by the same margin he won by in 2008.
    Unfortunately all the Bridgeport state delegation will win.
    Murphy will win Bridgeport but not by an overwhelming vote count.
    Himes will do the same.
    The charter question will be won by the No faction by a margin of 5000 votes.
    Nationally Obama Romney too close to call but it is possible the presidential race is decided by the House of Representatives.

  11. *** Those who voted for Finch or didn’t bother to vote at all should have “no” complaints whatsoever with anything that’s proposed by him and his admin. It is what it is and the vote “yes” charter revision” debacle will most likely pass like all the other bad choices this city continues to make. After it’s all said and done sometime in the future we will look back and see if in fact the loss of voters rights was worth it. But do not get too frustrated as many of us do and forget to vote, exercise your right! For me, it will all be part of a book I’m writing called “ZOMBIE POLITICS 101.” *** SEE YOU AT THE POLLS! ***

  12. First of all Lennie, if the question passes with a vote of yes, it doesn’t mean it’s over. A violation will have to have taken place in its true meaning and intent before one can go to the court for interference. I’d be the first to say if the yes get it, a judge will say, “I don’t think so.” So Lennie, don’t give out the prize ’til it’s over. We can go to dinner with the mayor in one of his brown-bag meetings and have him throw the Only In Bridgeport book at us when we give it to him.

  13. Joel,
    YES or NO will get answered tomorrow and then we move on to the next step of “civil governance reform” or “fiscal governance reform.” Sometimes it takes the financial police to make such a change and the court action comes later, right?

    What struck me today as people shared stories of the lobbying by both NO and YES advocates were two stories nearly identical about groups of YES young advocates knocking on doors along the Fairfield Avenue corridor. The resident comes to the door and learns the kids are there to encourage a YES vote as their materials cover. What they did not realize is they had encountered a knowledgeable adult willing to talk to them about the issue and perhaps why a NO vote might be more fair and in their interest. (After all, the educational governance reform for kids in High School is almost fully in operation at this moment. Two years from now most of them will be out of public high school.)
    In both cases the young canvassers had no idea, i.e. they had never been told by their employers, the civil right of voting would be lost to them, to their parents, and to other trusted adults. They were surprised and shocked.
    Notice how half-truths emanate from the Annex. Notice how Bridgeport residents look for the facts that are missing from a Mayoral statement! We are used to half truths. Maybe the young persons will have learned a valuable lesson about the way Mayor Finch (or any future mayor for that matter) may not tell the whole truth to the public. Time will tell.

  14. Was there at the old Stratford Ave. library today (Vote Yes/Vote No) and saw Charlie Coviello and Ernie Newton. A volunteer told me Maria Pereira had stopped in earlier with info–hope she forwards it to either Lennie or Jon Pelto.

  15. Not sure about Yes or No. I am sure I want a Democratic Mandate. I do agree with Nancy Hadley about Iannuzzi. I like his TV commercial but I cannot vote for him. I want Murphy to slaughter Linda McMahon. I want Himes and Musto. I want Obama and I never want to hear Romney’s name again and his irritating voice and lying rhetoric. So there you have my thoughts.


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