Ganim Versus Moore–Dynamics Of The Primary Vote

Ganim at his Downtown headquarters opening.

Now, it’s all about yanking out your friends. The campaign operations of Mayor Joe Ganim and primary opponent State Senator Marilyn Moore have pushed out their closing messages in the quest of urging supporters to the polls.

Roughly 47,000 registered Democrats are eligible to vote on Tuesday. The reality is, based on past measures, something in the neighborhood of 10,000 will vote. Four years ago was an outlier when more than 13,000 Dems voted in a three-way primary for mayor during Ganim’s return to the mayoralty inspired by the dynamics of the race.

This cycle has reverted back to the more traditional heads up between insurgent versus incumbent.

Has the insurgent made the case to fire the incumbent?

Moore in her headquarters.

Making that case depends on money, organization and message. Do you have enough firepower to bring it home?

Note to Ganim’s detractors–forget Ganim’s past–meow all you want about it, Moore will not defeat him on such a narrative. This is all about how he’s governed and resonating with voters why she’ll be better. Nothing else.

If Moore fails to win Tuesday it’s based on missed opportunities to contrast her record and resolve with Ganim’s record the past four years

If Ganim fails to win it’s because voters feel he was disengaged, running for governor, after receiving a second chance, as well as failing on core issues of taxes, public safety, development and education.

Has Moore explained clearly on those core issues why she’ll be better?

Moore and Ganim at lectern in East End.

The campaign demographic dynamics

Moore will perform strongest in neighborhoods of Bridgeport she represents in the state legislature such as Black Rock, West Side and North End. Place a bet on it: Moore will win Black Rock School by a major margin. Another place your bet: Black Rock is not a bellwether for the citywide vote. The gorgeous waterfront hamlet features the highest assessed homes in the city upset by the 2016 revaluation of city property that jacked taxes, something former Mayor Bill Finch delayed so he didn’t have to face voters in an election year. Ganim has not raised taxes the past three years with a slight cut this budget cycle.

Finch clobbered Ganim in Black Rock four years ago. If an early return on Tuesday is Black Rock, Moore supporters, don’t go crazy: It’s expected, as well as a big win at the Central precinct covering the West Side.

Meat and potatoes precincts

A key barometer is the 135th District featuring Wilbur Cross, Park City Magnet and Hallen precincts. Cross and Hallen are heavy African American voting areas where Ganim ran up significant numbers four years ago to upset Finch in the primary. If Moore wins the Cross vote substantially it’s a reason to rejoice. Moore must bank significant numbers in districts 130 and 132-35.

If Ganim runs strong in Cross, Moore’s path becomes problematic. Why? This is her crossroads to the rest of the city. After that it becomes mostly Ganim territory based on his profile, her lack of recognition and a mighty absentee ballot operation.

Ganim’s sweet spot will be Hispanic precincts such as Marin, Barnum, Harding and JFK.

Also a precinct to watch, Dunbar School in the East End where both camps are making major plays for a heavily black voting bloc.

Sometimes you win by losing

How is that? Here’s a scenario in which Moore wins even though the final numbers on Tuesday bolster Ganim. She triumphs the machine count to be lanced by Ganim’s absentee ballot operation in high senior citizen and public housing areas.

What Ganim doesn’t want? Winning as a result of absentee ballots because it gives Moore energy to make a case in the general election that the primary was stolen from her opening up emotion and opportunities to raise money.

Moore has secured a ballot spot in the general election just in case she comes up short in the primary. Nothing wrong with hedging bets. It’s a part of politics.

So Tuesday comes down to this: if Moore wins, she’s the city’s next mayor; if Ganim wins the machine count he’s on his way to another term (barring something major); if Moore wins the machine count defeated by absentee ballots … ballgame on for the general election. She’s still in it for November.

Oh yes, many others on the ballot Tuesday. For a complete list of candidates see here.

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23 comments

    1. Just checked at home to see if the Tom Mulligan “mailer” was sent to all of Black Rock? Missed our home with a couple of Democratic voters, folks interested in taxes, and municipal governance. Perhaps it was sent to “party absolute loyalists”? Kelly, Mulligan, and the rest of the “Irish Mafia” where have you been holding the Voice of Reason lectures on Bridgeport property taxes (or merely on those “in the neighborhood”)?
      I cannot remember hearing you at City Council sessions during the past few years. More important than the increases in taxes are the decreased property values facing those who have to or want to move?? Do either of you gentlemen, or Ganim2 for that matter have a quick comeback for the devaluation effect of Ganim2’s actions since 2015?
      I like people who use their voice to share facts and opinion. I also have a partiality for reason and logic to process the facts. Perhaps you will forward a copy from the desk of Mulligan? Time will tell.

        1. Tom Kelly,
          The Bully Pulpit….American History…..Teddy Roosevelt, no social media but the newspapers hung on his every word a century or so ago. Competition among the various news outlets caused lies, fake news of the day and even half truths to get straightened away over time. And today, how many folks get the local daily, much less read it and think about the meaning?? Instead we get OIB where you can post opinions (as you seem to exclusively), call attention to facts by asking questions, or stitch together enough impressions to tell a story that is true by most standards, and more importantly fair to all parties. America keeps changing. Hopefully people who have not been voting, will find this a good day to get to the polls. Time will tell.

    2. Governor Joe, got his Mulligan and gave Black Rock and this entire City a fat 29% increase on our Mill Rate, that’s what he calls (Holden the line on Taxes)!
      Fluck You Governor Joe!!!

    1. News flash.
      Ganim hasn’t closed the deal on Economic Development.
      Take a ride downtown. Nothing is getting done.
      Nothing up with the theaters. Nothing happening with the three towers. Nothing with the Primrose development.
      Nothing with the skating (thank God).
      Nothing!!!!
      Just empty promises. Oh wait a minute. There the tulip 🌷 museum. Is that open yet?

  1. Well,I’m definately not voting for Joe,and I’m having a hard time talking myself into voting for Moore also.Moore doesn’t seem engaged,sort of a “if I win ok,If I lose ok,attitude”.,Another big problem for me is her attaching herself to Tony Barr,it makes me question her judgement.It’s a sad time to be a BPT,resident for sure.

  2. Harvey,
    Is it time to vote our THE MACHINE?? Do the individual names of those folks really matter? Of course Ganim2 did not really qualify for a “second chance” since he never addressed the entire community, and what has been done since 2015 does not qualify for a third chance. Council members have not read monthly financial reports in depth, do not question and “push back” weak or shallow excuses from CFO, and take on no real organizational “oversight” role as legislators, so most of them can be voted out without a loss to the City. Of course there are individual exceptions like Kyle Langan, who promises to be so effective, the machine did not endorse him. For the BOE, you are on your own as with Sheriffs and part time City and Town Clerk candidates, except that Caruso and Maya with their cumulative experience may help a Mayor Moore win settle down quickly. When is the last time Ganim2 referenced his current City and Town Clerks? Time will tell.

  3. About Senator Moore
    Deputy President Pro Tempore
    Chair: Human Services
    Vice Chair: Children
    Member: Executive & Legislative Nominations; Finance, Revenue & Bonding; Legislative Management
    Marilyn Moore was first elected in 2014 to serve the 22nd State Senatorial District communities of Trumbull, sections of Bridgeport and Monroe. She was elected to a second term in 2016.

    As a lifelong Bridgeport resident and community activist, Marilyn has been a force in advocating for health equity, living wage, and legislation that supports and protects Connecticut communities. Recognizing the rapid increase in morbidity and mortality rates among low income minority women with breast cancer, Moore founded and became President and CEO of The Witness Project, which seeks to address and reduce breast cancer mortality.

    In addition, Marilyn has tackled the war against hunger by serving and being a member of several boards in Connecticut, including, End Hunger CT, Network Support Team Connecticut Food Systems Alliance, and the Food Solutions New England Coalition.

    As a result of her unwavering passion and dedication to fighting for food and health equity in Connecticut, the City of Bridgeport has formed the Food Policy Counsel, which integrates all agencies of the city in a common effort to improve the availability of safe and nutritious food at reasonable prices for all residents, particularly those in need.

    Marilyn’s accomplishments in improving the quality of life for Connecticut residents have earned her local and national acclaim over the past ten years, including being awarded by the National Association of Negro Business and Professional Women’s Club.

    By working in diverse situations and economies, Marilyn has developed the strength and capacity to ensure that her constituents are fairly represented in an increasingly challenging economy.

    Marilyn attended the University of Bridgeport and remains a Bridgeport resident.

    She’s Bridgeport enough!

  4. A friend contact me and asked me did ganim really attend trump rally idk if im going to vote for him after that. hahahah people are really doing their homework. Ganim might lose tomorrow.

  5. The absentee ballot count will be scrutinized regardless of the outcome. If gamin wins with a high AB count it will look as if he stole the election, one more time.

    That would work in Moore’s favor. She locked up the WFP endorsement early on. She’ll be on the ballot in November.

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