From the Q poll:
As the field of Republican presidential contenders in the 2024 primary race develops, former President Donald Trump remains at the top of the list of declared or potential candidates with 56 percent support among Republican and Republican leaning voters, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 25 percent, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today. Former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley receives 3 percent. Former Vice President Mike Pence, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie each receive 2 percent. The remaining 8 listed declared or potential candidates each receive less than 2 percent support.
This compares to a Quinnipiac University poll on March 29th when Trump received 47 percent and DeSantis received 33 percent.
In a head-to-head matchup between Trump and DeSantis, Trump leads 61 – 32 percent among Republican and Republican leaning voters, compared to 52 – 42 percent in late March.
“The first one out of the gate, in what for now still looks like a two-horse race, is moving at full gallop away from a slowly growing pack of contenders,”said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
2024 GENERAL ELECTION
In a hypothetical general election matchup for president, the race is neck and neck, with President Joe Biden receiving 48 percent and Trump receiving 46 percent among all registered voters. These results are unchanged since late March.
When Biden is matched up against DeSantis, the race is also very close, with DeSantis receiving 47 percent and Biden receiving 46 percent among all registered voters. These results are essentially unchanged since late March.
It is more important for a presidential candidate to be a great leader, 50 percent of registered voters say, while 44 percent say it is more important for a candidate to have great policy ideas.
There is a partisan divide.
Republicans (59 – 36 percent) and independents (51 – 42 percent) say it is more important for a presidential candidate to be a great leader, while Democrats 56 – 40 percent say it is more important for a presidential candidate to have great policy ideas.
AGE OF CANDIDATES
Registered voters 65 – 32 percent think that Joe Biden is too old to effectively serve another 4-year term as president. Republicans (90 – 8 percent) and independents (69 – 28 percent) think that Biden is too old, while Democrats 57 – 41 percent think that Biden is not too old to effectively serve another 4-year term as president.
Registered voters 59 – 36 percent think that Donald Trump is not too old to effectively serve another 4- year term as president. Republicans (85 – 15 percent) and independents (55 – 39 percent) think that Trump is not too old, while Democrats 51 – 42 percent think that Trump is too old to effectively serve another 4-year term as president.
Registered voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of:
- Donald Trump: 40 percent favorable, 56 percent unfavorable, 2 percent haven’t heard enough about him;
- Joe Biden: 39 percent favorable, 54 percent unfavorable, 4 percent haven’t heard enough about him;
- Ron DeSantis: 34 percent favorable, 42 percent unfavorable, 22 percent haven’t heard enough about him;
- Mike Pence: 25 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable, 21 percent haven’t heard enough about him;
- Nikki Haley: 19 percent favorable, 27 percent unfavorable, 52 percent haven’t heard enough about her.
Registered voters give President Biden a negative 38 – 57 percent job approval rating.
Among all Americans, Biden receives a negative 36 – 58 percent job approval rating.
Americans were asked about Biden’s handling of…
- the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: 44 percent approve, while 48 percent disapprove;
- foreign policy: 39 percent approve, while 54 percent disapprove;
- the economy: 34 percent approve, while 61 percent disapprove;
- immigration issues: 25 percent approve, while 66 percent disapprove.
Roughly 7 in 10 Americans (71 percent) are either very concerned (38 percent) or somewhat concerned (33 percent) about the possibility that President Biden and Congress won’t reach a deal on the national debt ceiling, causing the federal government to run out of cash to pay its bills, while nearly 3 in 10 Americans (28 percent) are either not so concerned (14 percent) or not concerned at all (14 percent).
As for who they think is behaving more responsibly in the negotiations over the national debt ceiling, Americans are split, with 38 percent thinking President Biden and the Democrats in Congress and 37 percent thinking Speaker McCarthy and the Republicans in Congress.
U.S. – MEXICO BORDER
Fifty percent of Americans oppose building a wall along the border with Mexico, while 44 percent support it.
Nearly 7 in 10 Americans (68 percent) think the Biden administration is not getting border security under control at the border between Mexico and Texas, while 20 percent think they are getting it under control.
SUPREME COURT & JUSTICE CLARENCE THOMAS
Americans give the Supreme Court a negative 35 – 55 percent job approval rating.
Registered voters give the Supreme Court a negative 35 – 57 percent job approval rating. This is the highest disapproval rating that the Supreme Court has received among registered voters since Quinnipiac University began asking the question in 2004.
Roughly 6 in 10 Americans (57 percent) say they have heard or read either a lot (34 percent) or some (23 percent) about reports that Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas received gifts from a Republican donor that were not disclosed, including vacations and private school tuition for a relative, while nearly 4 in 10 (38 percent) say they have heard or read either not too much (11 percent) or not much at all (27 percent) about the reports.
Americans 66 – 28 percent think Congress should investigate this matter. Democrats (90 – 7 percent) and independents (65 – 27 percent) think Congress should investigate this matter, while Republicans 50 – 43 percent think Congress should not investigate.
A slight plurality of Americans (46 percent) say Clarence Thomas should resign from the Supreme Court over this matter, while 42 percent say he should not resign and 13 percent did not offer an opinion.
“Short of extraordinary circumstances, a Supreme Court appointee has the job for life. That threshold may have been crossed in the minds of a majority of Americans who want Justice Clarence Thomas investigated, with a slight plurality saying he should hang up his robe and resign,”added Malloy.
MOST URGENT ISSUE
While inflation (24 percent) still outranks all other issues as the most urgent issue facing the country today, it is at the lowest level among Americans since Quinnipiac University began asking the question in April 2022. Gun violence (18 percent) ranks second, up 8 percentage points from late March, followed by immigration (13 percent).
A majority of Americans (54 percent) think artificial intelligence poses a danger to humanity, while 31 percent think it will benefit humanity.
Among those who are employed, 24 percent say they are either very concerned (8 percent) or somewhat concerned (16 percent) that artificial intelligence may make their jobs obsolete, while a vast majority (77 percent) say they are either not so concerned (22 percent) or not concerned at all (55 percent).
Registered voters were asked about how Congressional leaders are handling their jobs:
- House Speaker Kevin McCarthy: 35 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove, with 20 percent not offering an opinion;
- House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries: 34 percent approve, 26 percent disapprove, with 40 percent not offering an opinion;
- Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer: 33 percent approve; 47 percent disapprove, with 20 percent not offering an opinion;
- Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell: 20 percent approve; 64 percent disapprove, with 16 percent not offering an opinion.
1,819 U.S. adults nationwide were surveyed from May 18th – 22nd with a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percentage points.
The survey included 1,616 self-identified registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey included 669 Republican and Republican leaning voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.