Q Poll: Gender Gap Drives Mid-Term Elections

From the Q poll:

With almost 2-1 backing from women, Democrats take a 51 – 39 percent lead in hypothetical races for the U.S. House of Representatives this year, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today. Women back Democratic candidates 57 – 32 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll finds. Men are divided with 46 percent going Republican and 44 percent for Democrats.

White voters are divided with 46 percent for Democrats and 45 percent for Republicans. Black voters go Democratic 78 – 16 percent and Hispanic voters back Democrats 66 – 23 percent. The key block of independent voters backs Democratic candidates 50 – 33 percent. American voters disapprove 66 – 27 percent of the job Republicans in Congress are doing and disapprove of Democrats in Congress 63 – 30 percent.

Voters are divided on President Donald Trump’s nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to be a justice of the U.S. Supreme Court as 40 percent say the U.S. Senate should confirm the nomination and 41 percent say the Senate should not confirm the nomination. In a similar question with a slight difference in wording, an April 5, 2017 Quinnipiac University Poll found American voters supported 50 – 35 percent the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch.

“Although the Mid-term elections are more than three months away, Democrats, who are hoping to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives, will be cheered by their double-digit lead on the so-called generic ballot,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “At this point, American voters are split down the middle on Judge Brett Kavanaugh, President Donald Trump’s U.S. Supreme Court pick.”

“With this kind of division it is likely Judge Kavanaugh’s Senate confirmation hearings will be crucial if not determinative,” Brown added.

Kavanaugh’s nomination shows wide gender and racial gaps among American voters:

— Men support confirmation 50 – 35 percent, with women opposed 46 – 32 percent;

— White voters support confirmation 46 – 38 percent. Black voters are opposed 61 – 15 percent and Hispanic voters are divided 37 – 38 percent.

Kavanaugh will make the Supreme Court too conservative, voters say 45 – 38 percent. But voters say 62 – 27 percent that it is not likely that the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision will be overturned within the next few years. Overturning Roe v. Wade would be a “bad thing,” voters say 66 – 23 percent. By a narrow 48 – 39 percent Republicans say overturning Roe v. Wade would be a “good thing,” the only listed party, gender, education, age or racial group which says that.

American voter opinions on abortion are:

— 26 percent say abortion should be legal in all cases;

— 38 percent say abortion should be legal in most cases;

— 19 percent say abortion should be illegal in most cases;

— 10 percent say abortion should be illegal in all cases.

President Trump and the Media American voters disapprove 56 – 36 percent of the way the media covers President Trump, and disapprove 65 – 32 percent of the way Trump talks about the media.

Voters trust the media more than Trump 54 – 34 percent to tell the truth about important issues. Republicans believe Trump more 75 – 16 percent, the only listed group to side with the president. White voters with no college degree and white men are divided.

The media is an important part of democracy, 71 percent of voters say, while 21 percent say the media is the enemy of the people. This is the strongest support for the media since the Quinnipiac University National Poll first asked this question in April.

From July 18 – 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,177 voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts nationwide public opinion surveys, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and Texas as a public service and for research. Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

See poll and questionnaire here.