OIB posters pontificate and prognosticate. Time for political swamis to pull out their crystal balls. Four years ago Bill Finch defeated Mary-Jane Foster in the last Democratic primary for mayor. Roughly 9,200 Dems voted. Most political operatives believe given three candidates including the presence of Joe Ganim on the ballot, interest is higher for Wednesday’s Democratic primary.
Turnout for the last two Democratic primaries for mayor were low- and mid-20 percent respectively. A 27 percent turnout would represent roughly 11,000 Dems voting on Wednesday.
So who’s your horse in this race?
Rather than predict actual voter performances of the candidates, let’s stick to voter spreads, although you’re also free to post projected candidate results. For instance, in 2007 Finch defeated Chris Caruso by roughly 200 votes, in 2011 it was about 1,600 over Foster.
So who do you think will be Wednesday’s winner and by how much over the second place finisher?
The closest to the number receives dinner with me and on me at the Bridgeport restaurant of your choice and enshrinement in the Bridgeport Swami Hall Of Fame.
And just think, depending on the closeness of the primary, all three candidates have a path to run in the general election, so we may be doing this again in November.
MJF wins it. I’ll buy you dinner at Joseph’s Steakhouse.
Frank, I’ll split the bill with you.
Sounds good to me. Day after Primary Day?
Bill Finch will best Joe Ganim by 437 votes with my favorite candidate Mary-Jane Foster coming in a distant third.
Lennie, that offer’s so tempting, but I get superstitious when I attempt to make a prediction. I’ve been that way since the first time I ran for office, even when I was unchallenged. So as much as I would love to have dinner with you, I’ll give you my read privately, and if I’m right we can have a cup of coffee.
I agree, but just to get the dinner I’ll say Finch over Ganim by 438 votes.
What is this, the Price Is Right?
🙂
I made a $5 bet with a friend that Joe Ganim will win the primary. According to the political scientology that is peculiar to Bridgeport, Ganim will win by, oh I dunno, 250 votes. After that the margins will narrow, Finch will place and Foster will show. The margin between those two will be tissue-thin. (If I win the Angus is more than okay.)
I expect a higher-than-usual turnout for the primary. All the campaigns have aggressive GOTV drives as part of the strategy to win. The legal strategies–contacting the SEEC, the FBI, the U.S. Attorney’s office, the FEC, the ASPCA, the UAW and any other organization that might have jurisdiction over the electoral circus is a ploy that serves two purposes: one, it may smear the reputation of the opposition; and two, it will draw attention to a process that has been stained by fraud.
It will be the same turnout. You’d be a fool if you thought more than 25% turnout. Ganim isn’t a demigod.
Neither is Bill Finch, in spite of Auerbach’s claims to the contrary.
My prediction is John Fabrizi will win.
bridgeportvidalia.wordpress.com/2015/09/12/torres-hangry-ganim-steals-doughnuts-from-brfm/
I think the turnout will be very high, somewhere around 17,000-plus.
Ganim…… 10370 61%
Mary-Jane… 4250 25%
Bill Finch…2400 12%
others……. 349 2%
Sonny, take your meds.
Finch by 568.
Lennie, will do dinner at the Snake Pit!
666.
Need I say more?
The devil made me do it! Excellent prediction, Bob!
Hmmm, if yard signs counted, Ganim would win. Holy moly on my way to the mall today tons upon tons of Ganim signs even Ganim signs in Fairfield. lmaoooo wtf hahaha.
Yard signs only count by how much space they take up in the garbage truck after election day.
Foster 1,822; Ganim 3,937; Finch 3,927. Turnout will be a li’l below or above 10,000 voters
Vote total–including absentees–11,150
Ganim–5303
Finch–5024
Foster–823
* Final vote count not in until 5:00 PM, Friday, 9/18.
I think MJ takes at least 1000 votes from Finch.
Ganim–5942
Finch–4622
Foster–1103
Hector, from your post to God’s ears!
I will say Mayor Bill Finch by 643 votes. Foster a distant third.
Ganim signs are multiplying on all public properties and esplanades in the North End.
I just saw Earl DeBenedetto, retired city hall employee putting up multiple signs by Testo’s, wearing a hat and glasses. I think multiple signs showing up on public properties is a sure sign of desperation. I think a slightly higher than usual turnout and I believe that helps Finch.
Mary-Jane Foster will be taking votes away from Finch, the documented compulsive liar. More than a few likely voters have a dim view of Joe Ganim, the convicted felon; an even larger number have a dim view of Bill Finch, the dumb-ass who thinks everyone is as stupid as he is.
I totally agree with you! No eres estupido!
Foster by 800 over Ganim, and Ganim 1,000 over Finch.
Finch will be show. Ganim to win, Foster to place. If it were a horse race, that’s how I’d bet for the trifecta.
Steve–Let’s double the bet, and put it over to the November results. OK?
Nope, I will take the dinner now we can chat there will be no contest in November but I will be happy to make another bet! 🙂
Let’s triple the bet: if Finch loses Auerbach will move to a West Bank kibbutz with no Internet access.
Bridgeport Kid–that’s not going to work. The kibbutzes of today have every modern amenity.
🙂
The problem is Steve needs a job asap! He can’t wait until November.
Steve. Will be at Central High School next 6 weeks.
Well how do you know the Ganim campaign is desperate? Not only are they trying to get as many signs on Public properties to create an illusion of momentum but I just had a couple removed from Main Street windows as my friends own the business and the hourly associates said okay. Then my gas station has a small shitload of Ganim literature just removed from where they sell coffee. Are they kidding?
Advanced Therapy, why is my personal business an issue for you? What did that have to do with the post from Come Back Bridgeport?
Again, I have to ask Lennie Grimaldi how he can have incognito posters making personal character assaults that have nothing to do with the conversation.
Sorry Lennie, it is getting out of control. I am not the entertainment for these losers, so either you put an end to it or again I will Thank you.
I could never imagine making a comment like that! Oh yeah, we are protecting the city hall employees.
You did, however, make a comment like this:
“Bpt Punisher, you need my dick in your mouth, you need not tell me how much fun you are to be with.
Lennie Grimaldi, this is where I sign off. Anonymous posters need to be excluded, Until then, sayonara.”
Imagine that.
No need to say “adios” or “sayonara.” Just get out, leave us along. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out. Goodbye. Auf Weder Sehen.
Wicca , better you answer the question for the Bluefish, and by the way, I am amazed and ecstatic people actually quote me and I love it especially when they stand by as total losers when a person is unnecessarily maligned. That is why your candidate will fade into oblivion.
What course do you teach, woodshop? Showing all the retreads how to make birdhouses and magazine racks?
Can’t take the heat, Steve!
Advanced Therapy, of course I can take the heat, as long as I know who you are so I can make demeaning comments to you that have nothing to do with the subject at hand. I figure if I can talk about your business so everyone knows I am talking about you, you will understand. I don’t have the privilege of being incognito as I am not a city employee getting paid with taxpayer dollars hating the administration and spreading negativity. In the real world I would have your ass fired. But that’s okay, I am working on getting an anonymous handle.
“Demeaning comments?” You make demeaning comments all the time, Auerbach. What about when you called me a drunk? What about when you told BPT Punisher “You need my dick in your mouth?”
If you act abusively toward others, don’t take offense if they respond in kind. You put your personal life out there for all to see; if people comment on it you have no right to take offense. Don’t dish it out if you can’t take it. This is a public forum, Auerbach. If you don’t like being criticized then don’t post here.
Bridgeport Kid, honestly thank G-d it is over Wednesday. Derek Brown, you are like a kid in school doing anything to get my attention. I am not interested. As much as you try to get my attention, I am seriously not interested.. You may continue to support Rick Torres and attack me and Finch but stop trying to get my attention! No means no, you idiot. You are very creepy to me. You are one person I am not interested in conversing with. Just please, make me invisible. You are creeping me out. Look, everybody on this blog is well aware I went up to meet you at the debate. I offered my hand and you are just a rude, uncivilized individual. I accept you are a person I could be in the same room with but your loathsomeness toward me is apparent. Get over me, please. I am not
interested. Anytime you post a comment or inject yourself into my conversation, I will use the Ron Mackey post. “Chirping.”
You shook my hand, big deal. You were so obnoxious toward Rick’s son, he was revolted. All the way home he kept saying “Who IS that guy? He’s repulsive.” I didn’t say a word to you. That makes me rude? You couldn’t shut your cake hole long enough to let either John or myself get a word into the conversation. Your breath was atrocious. You also offended the young lady who was with us. You have the audacity to say I’m rude? Look in the mirror. Nearly everyone who compliments and encourages my contributions here are repulsed and disgusted by your crude and vulgar comments.
You don’t really care if a Finch is re-elected, you just have a bug up your ass because Joe Ganim had the temerity to fire you from a good-paying no-show job. You’re not supporting Mary-Jane Foster because none of her people want anything to do with you. That’s why they didn’t tell you they moved the office, twice. From what I hear the Finch campaign did the same thing, moved the office without telling you where the new location was.
You want to be invisible? Then go away. This is a public forum, not Facebook with its blocking functions. Just go away, Auerbach. You have no fans here. Just get out, find another group to insult. From what I’ve read over the past three days the anti-Auerbach community is growing.
LOL! I WOULDN’T HAVE TO BE INCOGNITO IF FINCH WOULD OBEY THE CONSTITUTION OF THE UNITED STATES!!! I have every right to speak against this administration. Just because you favor this administration doesn’t mean we (I) do. I will never support Finch, never did, never will! Adios.
Usted no es estupido!!!
You don’t have to support the mayor but a little respect wouldn’t hurt. Just a little bit of respect. I love being so bold and mean-spirited under an alias. That is weak.
Bullshit Steven, remember last Tuesday? You didn’t think I knew you. You talk shit as long as you think no one knows you. By the way, how was the cancelled Brown Bag Meeting? Did Johanna Dorgan give you the material the mayor wanted you to put on the blog?
Don’t confront him, Speedy. Auerbach thinks he’s writing on the wall of the second-floor boy’s room at Central High. That’s why his comments are so vulgar.
Joel Gonzalez, I have to be honest, it wasn’t that you recognized me. I wasn’t sure it was you. I didn’t get the comment about the earring. I had to look for the missing finger to verify it was you and as usual I was very respectful and you were just acting insane, it was embarrassing to me.
I have never attended a mayoral brown bag lunch. I actually stopped off to give Ms .Dorgan the last of my garden tomatoes from my crop this summer.
Joel, I can assure you there is not one bit of information shared with me that I post.
Does Joe Ganim give you your talking points?
Honest to G-d, as I am leaving my house to celebrate the first night of Rosh Hashanah, Mayor Finch nor Adam wood nor any member of the Finch administration or his political campaign, which are two completely distinct groups , have never asked me or suggested I write anything. Es verdad. Sweet New Years’ to all who loathe me and the maybe one or two who really really like me 🙂
A day in the life of Mayor Bill Finch
Mrs. Finch: Oh! You’re home honey, how was the campaign today?
MF: Pretty good response from the voters, actually one of the best days we’ve had in a long time. After today I feel pretty good about how bad we’re going to beat the Felon and Little Miss Patent Leathers.
Mrs. F: Oh honey, you meant Joe Ganim and Mary-Jane. Bill, please stop giving people names like that; after all, you’re the mayor of the largest city in Connecticut, please remember that.
MF: We had so many people taking my flyers and shaking my hand and smiling at us, it was great! Woody and I stayed there all day, honey it was so great!!!
Mrs. F: Honey, where did you and Woody campaign?
MF: At Stop & Shop in Black Rock, then we went across the street to McDonalds for a burger and all those people were so friendly to see us as well.
Mrs. F: Bill, you meant to say Wendy’s, not McDonald’s, right?
MF: No, it was McDonald’s, honey! I had a McDouble and Woody had a McFish and fries.
Mrs. F: Honey, did you have to drive or walk across the street?
MF: We drove around the circle to McDonalds and then after lunch we drove back around the circle to flucking Stop & Shop!
Mrs. F: Honey, I know you and Woody are not the sharpest nails in the box of life, but on this one, I think you and Woodruff wasted your entire day campaigning in flucking “FAIRFIELD!!!” And here’s that sad thing, honey! This flucking thing isn’t over on Wednesday the 16th. It’s just the start of “Nightmare to November!!!”
We are so flucked!
Joe Ganim–5749
The other numbers don’t matter.
I’ll go with Ganim for 5000. Lennie, if you run low on cash there’s always Beverly’s Pizza.
Ganim squeaks through by 140 votes. If I win I’m gonna eat every pork chop at the Teppanyaki Buffet!
Ganim by about 700.
He’s been hitting the pavement harder than any other candidate, but it remains to be seen if he can muster actual voter turnout in some of the poorer neighborhoods where he is pulling support at a higher rate.
My prediction: Lennie will be taking us to McDonald’s.
Steve, I had a lousy season with my tomatoes, not sure what I did wrong this year. Last year I went well into October. This year a couple more weeks, maybe. What’s your secret? I tried plum tomatoes this year, only about a 40% yield. I have good soil, lots of manure. 🙂
Back on point; if either Finch or Ganim win Wednesday, Bridgeport loses!
If you volunteered for the Finch campaign, you would have had plenty of manure.
Quentin, the secret I had for a bumper crop this season before I slowed down and started campaigning:
I did prep the soil in March with manure and lime. I started my crop after May 15. The secret was fish emulsion and Epsom salts. The magnesium is excellent. I sprinkled Epsom salts around the plants. I also had the salts dissolved in water and sprayed the entire plant including the flowers. I had grape, plum, big boy, beef steak, big girl and cherry tomatoes.
I also have Swiss chard, collard greens, eggplants, green beans, Italian beans, Parsley, basil and dill. The heatwave was awful. I spent the summer walking the city for Finch and after the tomatoes reached four feet I stopped staking them. Got lazy. The heat wave made the tomatoes ripen on the vine and had more than I could consume. That was a first. Epsom salts and fish emulsion.
Back to point. Finch will win and Bridgeport wins!