From Dick Blumenthal’s pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner:
In a statewide survey conducted among 606 likely voters September 20-23, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal holds a 12-point advantage over Linda McMahon with five weeks to go in the campaign. Blumenthal enjoys a nearly 2 to 1 favorable-unfavorable ratio while McMahon’s negatives outweigh positive impressions of her despite the record-breaking nearly $22 million she has spent so far.
Blumenthal leads McMahon 52 – 40 percent among likely voters, maintaining 12-point lead while being significantly outspent. Third party candidates Warren Mosler and John Mertens attract 2 and 1 percent of the vote, respectively—figures that are consistent with previous Senate races in which other candidates have attracted 2 to 3 percent on average.
Blumenthal’s edge is based on his generally strong standing, compared to fairly high negative impressions of McMahon. Blumenthal receives a 55 – 29 percent favorable-unfavorable rating. McMahon’s ratio is 36 – 44 percent favorable-unfavorable, a ratio that has not changed much over the past month and is notable because a plurality of voters view her unfavorably.
Blumenthal’s standing is based on advantages on important qualities. When asked which candidate best embodies some important qualities, voters are more likely to view Blumenthal as the candidate who fights for regular people (61 percent Blumenthal, 28 percent McMahon), the candidate who will be effective and get things done in the Senate (52 Blumenthal, 35 McMahon), and the candidate who is honest and trustworthy (48 percent Blumenthal, 31 percent McMahon).
Blumenthal leads McMahon in the Hartford media market by 53 – 39 percent and in the New York media market by 51 to 43 percent. Importantly, this survey reflects an electorate in which the ratio of Democrats to Republicans is 5 percentage points lower for Democrats than is the actual voter registration of the state.