A Month Remains To Election–Is There An October Surpise?

Four weeks left to this historic, bizarre, wacky, surreal, twisty yo-yo of a mayoral election. And we’re not done yet. Time to take inventory how we got to this point and the fascination of the general election.

Joe Ganim
On January 1 of this year Joe Ganim entered the East End church of Pastor Charlie Stallworth, who also serves in the State House, and set in motion a dynamic for a once-improbable comeback to regain the office he lost following his conviction on federal corruption charges in 2003. In the devised sanctuary of church, Ganim issued his first public apology for violating the public trust after declaring for 14 years time and again and over and over he did nothing wrong. Stripped of his law license and diminished economic potential, divorced and owing child support, Ganim weighed the odds: who’d pay him a salary and benefits package accorded the mayor of Connecticut’s largest city? Sure, redemption is a mighty fine thing, but redemption with a payday even better. That’s how the brain of Ganim works.

So Ganim issued an apology that he called mistakes, but in doing so also revealed something unspoken. Apologizing was also a de facto admission he had lied under oath during his 2003 trial. In fact, U.S. District Judge Janet Bond Arterton announced in court in assessing Ganim’s enhanced nine-year sentence, Ganim had lied under oath before a jury.

“I find by clear and convincing evidence,” the judge announced, “Mr. Ganim’s testimony was so fundamentally and materially in dispute with that given by others, whose testimony was corroborated.”

Three state judges also agreed in denying Ganim’s law license, he showed no contrition in a preponderance of evidence leading to his conviction. Joe Ganim, however, is no ordinary politician. He’s a tireless, persuasive campaigner undeterred about the odds if he sees a realistic path to victory. It was a leap of faith that required a few breaks along the way.

He received that break from Mayor Bill Finch’s political operation. Even before Ganim was in the race for mayor, Finch and political operatives pounded Ganim in news releases, public statements, in the corridors of the state capitol to anyone willing to listen, he was a pond-scum charlatan unfit for office. And in fact, Finch pressed for a state law to prevent Ganim from running for public office in a direct message to city voters they were incapable of making up their own minds about Ganim’s fitness for office. Increasingly urban voters, many of whom know someone who went astray, screwed up or went to prison, began asking why is the mayor afraid of Joe Ganim? Maybe we should give Ganim a second look. Rather than being dismissive of Ganim and focusing on his own record, Finch had handed Ganim a gift, according him relevance before Ganim was even in the race. It also reinforced a frostiness that existed between Finch and Ganim when Ganim was mayor and Finch served on the City Council and then State Senate.

Ganim went to work building political support, working around the clock appealing to voters with a second-chance message. Finch’s political team was convinced all they had to do was follow the campaign playbook against former Providence, Rhode Island Mayor Buddy Cianci who was defeated last year in a comeback bid following his conviction on corruption charges more than a decade prior. The comparison was misplaced. Cianci ran as an independent in an open seat. As a result Cianci’s Democratic opponent could turn the race into a referendum on Cianci’s corruption. Ganim decided to run in a Democratic primary against an incumbent who had to defend his record.

Ganim drew a contrast with Finch in three key areas: taxes, public safety and quality of life. Little things mean a lot, Ganim argued, such as paved streets, new sidewalks and listening to concerns. He persuaded voters, particularly African Americans, Finch’s word could not be trusted. When Trumbull Gardens was hit by violent crime, Ganim opened a campaign headquarters he asserted doubled as a police substation. Finch called it a cheap political trick and then lo and behold announced his own police substation. Ganim announced he’d hire 100 new cops. Finch said me too. Some voters wondered, does Finch have any of his own ideas for addressing public safety? There was a hole in the fence at Trumbull Gardens. Ganim went to Home Depot, bought supplies and fixed the fence. Who cared the fixed fence was destroyed a few days later? At least Ganim is trying to do something, residents reasoned.

Ganim is more than just a candidate, he’s also a strategist. What’s better cover than persuading the FBI agent who investigated you to support a comeback? Ed Adams, now a private investigator, did just that. The police union too whose majority membership did not like Finch endorsed Ganim. Ganim goes door to door telling voters if you’re concerned about my past the FBI agent who investigated me and the police union both support my candidacy. Surreal, under normal circumstances, but true.

Ganim was gaining traction. Meanwhile he worked the political establishment to win over nearly 50 percent of the Democratic Town Committee at the July endorsement including party chair Mario Testa. Finch, an eight-year incumbent, found himself in the embarrassing position of leveraging the government candy store in the weekend before to win the endorsement. Finch barely won the endorsement over a guy who did seven years in the joint.

Meanwhile, Ganim brought new voters to his side and registered folks who had not participated in the process, some of them felons. Hey, I’m one of you! Welcome to the club. African American voters in particular gravitated to Ganim.

While Finch’s political operation had messaging breakdowns that bolstered Ganim, Finch’s field operation did turn out to be a strength. It managed to produce 5,800 votes in the primary. Problem was Ganim produced 6,200 in the highest primary turnout in 30 years. Finch, in becoming the first incumbent mayor in city history to lose a primary, actually built upon his primary total from 2011 when he defeated Mary-Jane Foster by roughly 5,400 to 3,800 votes. Ganim out-hustled and out-messaged him.

Mary-Jane Foster
Foster had a working relationship with Ganim when he was mayor. Foster and her husband Jack McGregor were the visionaries behind the ballpark and arena at Harbor Yard, including their initial ownership in the Bridgeport Bluefish baseball team. Foster and Ganim fell apart when Ganim lost his way. Foster also had a working relationship with Finch when he served in the State Senate. She also supported him for mayor in 2007. The relationship started coming apart with Finch’s myopic treatment of the University of Bridgeport, the anchor of the city’s South End. An arm of the Unification Church had rescued the university from financial ruin in the early 1990s. Irrespective of the fact the university was on the comeback without intrusion from the church, Finch made unfounded inflammatory public claims calling it a criminal enterprise shortly after Foster was named a vice president. The business community urged Finch to reel it in, his own staff tried to find ways to bring Finch closer to the university. Finch, stubbornly, would have none of it.

In the spring of 2011, Foster made a public entry as Finch’s Democratic primary challenger. Despite being largely unknown throughout the city, Foster managed to crack 40 percent of the vote against Finch having been outspent two to one. It was a respectable showing for Foster that also illustrated the cracks in Finch’s relationship with the African American community. Foster ran almost even with Finch in the East End, an African American stronghold. During the July 4th weekend, Finch and the elected Board of Education threw in the towel and announced they wanted the state to takeover the troubled school system. It was replaced by an appointed body eventually overturned by the Connecticut Supreme Court as illegal. But it was an example of Finch’s surreptitious administration that had blindsided some voters, particularly African Americans who did not trust Finch to appoint school board members.

One year later Finch tried to persuade voters to give him the power to appoint school board members. The city charter reform message failed at the polls. One year after that all endorsed school board members backed by Finch were shellacked in a primary, producing more storm warnings for Finch.

Foster stayed active in some city issues, but largely did not take advantage of her first run. You stay active by attending City Council and school board meetings and issuing alternative policy information and staying close to your core support. Foster’s 2011 supporters urged her to remain active. Her reticence, however, created openings for both Ganim and Finch to poach supporters both financially and politically.

As spring progressed, Foster had trouble with a mayoralty of Finch or Ganim. She entered the race late, had difficulty raising money, but showed in forum performances she could hold her own against the more seasoned government officials. Foster finished third in the Democratic primary won by Ganim. She announced she would not be a candidate in the general election irrespective of having petitioned onto the November ballot. On that very day OIB disclosed, based on information from the office of the Connecticut Secretary of the State, Finch political operatives had botched a backup plan for November ballot placement if he lost the primary. This provided new life for Foster as a viable alternative to Ganim. Without a ballot spot, Finch pondered his options. He could launch a long-shot write-in campaign, sit out the general election or back Foster.

Finch determined it was best to make peace with Foster to stop Ganim. They met and according to both Foster and Finch there was no deal. Finch would throw his support behind her. He was willing to put his prestige on the line for Foster to block Ganim. Foster’s challenge is maintaining a majority of Finch’s core support, coupled with her own, while appealing to unaffiliated voters in the general election.

Enrique Torres
Torres fancies himself an outspoken Republican maverick alternative to the political establishment. Once a Democrat, he became a Republican and made a credible showing as the GOP candidate for mayor against John Fabrizi who succeeded Ganim in the 2003 general election in the aftermath of the Ganim corruption probe. Torres who tends to travel to the beat of his own drum made an unprecedented decision in the summer of 2007 when as the Republican town chairman he endorsed Democratic party outsider Chris Caruso for mayor over Finch in the Democratic primary. Republican party leaders recoiled and removed Torres as town chair.

Four years later Torres reemerged as the Republican candidate for mayor against Finch who enjoyed a 10 to 1 voter registration advantage. With limited funds and relying largely on a Finch anti-vote, Torres lost 8,435 to 3,344. Torres’ one strong showing came in his home precinct in Black Rock, the bastion of Republican politics, where he owns the popular Harborview Market. Bridgeport elections features 10 voting districts. Torres secured 25 percent of his vote in the 130th District. He was pummeled in all other areas of the city.

Two years later Torres smartly identified a winnable elected position, City Council in Black Rock. He became the lone Republican on the City Council challenging Finch on taxes, the budget and tax giveaways to developers. Last winter he came up short in a special election to Democrat Steve Stafstrom to fill the State House seat of Auden Grogins who was appointed to the state bench by Governor Dan Malloy.

Torres is once again the Republican candidate for mayor with limited funds and limited ground operation. Things got so bad for Finch without a ballot spot, he urged Torres to cede his placement to him offering Torres policy goodies such as minority party representation on the City Council. Torres thought about it, said no, then said to Finch why don’t you support me instead? Finch said no.

Torres approached Foster about supporting him. Foster approached Torres about supporting her. No common ground.

Ganim also reached out to Foster publicly for support.

For Torres the essential questions still exist. Without serious financing in the face of a dramatic voter registration disadvantage, what’s the path to victory? Four years ago, beyond his home precinct Black Rock, he had no traction. What’s changed?

Charlie Coviello, David Daniels, Chris Taylor, Tony Barr, largely unknown and lacking finances are also on the November ballot.