Will Trump’s Conviction Transform The Race?

Maybe, maybe not. Too soon to know. A historic decision like this requires time to sort out if this is a flashpoint or more of the same. A vast majority voters’ opinions on Donald Trump and Joe Biden are baked in.

Where it could make a difference, however, is at the margins, people undecided and also the key voting bloc of independents that lean toward Trump, according to most polling.

A snap poll by YouGov conducted hours after the verdict announcement shows:

Half of Americans agree with a Manhattan jury’s verdict that Donald Trump was guilty of 34 felony charges related to falsifying business records to cover up an alleged affair with an adult film actress. Another 30% disagree, and 19% of Americans aren’t sure, in a YouGov snap poll conducted hours after the verdict Thursday.

The poll asked, “Donald Trump was recently convicted of 34 charges, including for falsifying business records to reimburse his lawyer for payments made to an adult film actress. Do you agree with the jury that he is guilty of these charges?”

The results showed 48 percent of independents said they believed Trump was guilty, 25 percent said he was not guilty with 26 percent responding they were not sure.

So what really matters is how voters in the tight battleground states view this conviction.

 

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4 comments

  1. Did we become so used to Trump lies in his four years as President where more than 30,000 examples of statements that were fact checked and found false when he told them the first time, that when they were repeated, ad nauseam, in statement, text, or quoted in any form became the phony soup we were surrounded by. Tough to hold your breath. Difficult to isolate and reflect. Very difficult to find a place to honestly challenge and seek facts in response.
    We are faced with a media assumption that Biden will win the popular vote that will likely become stronger as November approaches. But those in the know are not worried about blue states like Connecticut where the electoral votes are conceded to the Biden-Harris results column. What they are focusing on is the overall turnout of voters, especially individuals with certain beliefs like women who seek healthcare freedom, or folks who see actual democracy at risk as election rules change without notice at the State level, or older folks happy with Medicare and Social Security in general, getting word that Trump has programs on the cutting board, without admitting what will be in place instead. Lots of other items and issues are understood including the climate, international relations, and support for public safety/police and military forces. Finally what is taxation providing at dinner tables around the land? Time will tell.

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