UConn/Courant Poll: Barack Opens Up Large Connecticut Lead

From Chris Keating, Hartford Courant:

President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney are locked in a fierce battle across the nation, but that is not the case in Connecticut.

A new poll by the University of Connecticut and The Hartford Courant shows that Obama has opened up a 21 point lead in Connecticut. The president leads Romney 53 percent to 32 percent, with 12 percent of likely voters undecided. The poll of 508 likely voters taken Sept. 11 to 16 has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Meanwhile, an additional UConn/Hartford Courant survey of voters nationwide found Obama leading Romney 46 to 43. The 3 point difference makes the race too close to call because the margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The poll of 1,186 likely voters shows that 8 percent are undecided in a race that is being fought in battleground states across the country. Other polls released this week show that Obama has been gaining momentum in some swing states at a time when Romney is defending remarks made in a secretly videotaped speech at a fundraiser in Florida.

The UConn/Hartford Courant national poll was taken from Sept. 11 to 18, largely before heavy news coverage this week about Romney’s Florida speech. The remarks have caused a storm of controversy, but Romney has said that he was explaining that Obama has a built-in base of about half the electorate and he, too, expects to receive half the votes in a tight race.

In Connecticut the poll also shows that Obama is running strong across the state, leading by wide margins in the Hartford and New Haven areas. He is leading Romney by 7 percentage points in Fairfield County and Litchfield County–the two counties that traditionally have the largest amount of Republican strength. The last Republican to hold a Congressional seat in the state was Christopher Shays in lower Fairfield County, where he won multiple elections with wide support in the Republican strongholds of Greenwich, New Canaan, Darien and Wilton.

“Given that southwestern Connecticut has been a major source of Republican support for so long, it’s surprising that Mitt Romney isn’t doing better with voters there,” said Jennifer Dineen, the poll’s director.

Connecticut has not voted for a Republican for president since 1988, when Vice President George H.W. Bush was the party’s candidate. Obama defeated Republican John McCain by more than 20 percentage points in 2008 in Connecticut, and Democrats say they expect another strong showing this year.

State Republicans were hoping they could convince the Romney campaign that Connecticut was potentially as much of a battleground state as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. But Democrats and national analysts responded that Connecticut, despite a potential solid showing by Romney, would not be voting for a Republican for president this year.

In Connecticut, Romney received support from 84 percent of self-identified Republicans, 68 percent of conservatives and 3 percent of liberals, the poll showed. Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts and the founder of a private equity firm, is also favored by 82 percent of voters who supported McCain and his running mate, Sarah Palin, in 2008. Only 5 percent of Obama supporters favored McCain-Palin.

The Connecticut poll also showed that Obama is supported by 93 percent of liberals, 89 percent of self-identified Democrats, and 21 percent of conservatives.

Regardless of whom they were voting for, 58 percent of those polled said they believe that Obama will win in November and 17 percent said that Romney would emerge victorious.

Full story here.



  1. Poll numbers, up, down, based on latest news cycle and gotcha. But really, the most noteworthy stat here: one in five conservatives still support Obama.

    Maybe because they know the real ‘redistribution’ going on. And this ain’t no socialism. The wealthy had new worth rise by $2 trillion over past year. At the same time, the percentage of children living in poverty rose 30% here in Bridgeport, the CT Post reports today.

    www .ctpost.com/local/article/Percentage-of-children-in-poverty-rising-3878763.php

    Now almost half of all Bridgeport children live in poverty. And we already know the middle class lost 40% of their net worth of recent years.

    So when you think of voting for Obama, you might be voting against your own economic interest. The president doesn’t represent our interests. If he did, he’d have fought to reduce the Romney private equity 15% tax subsidy, for example.

  2. Obama 2012!!! Linda is gonna have a longgggggggg uphill battle beating Murphy. She is gonna need two out of three Obama voters to split their ticket and that will not happen.

  3. *** “My, MY, My,” these delusions of grandeur on the part of Mitt, his political fans and the Republican Party in general seem to get more snf more comical as we get closer to election day! Linda seems to be keeping it real against “Murph the surf” and his “no jobs plan” campaign in CT. As for the rest of the Dem. candidates running on President Obama’s political coattails good or bad, their chances of winning unfortunately will be good even though there are some good opposing canfidates from other parties. Closer to home, it is what it is in Zombieland with questionable feelings on the BOE “trick question” and anticipated voter turnout. Whether citizens vote along party lines or for individual candidates they like, let’s hope those who can will exercise their right and do so, no? *** HERE WE GO! ***


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