Less than a year from a mayoral primary Mayor Bill Finch, in a poll of likely Democratic voters commissioned by OIB, leads all potential primary challengers including State Rep. Chris Caruso by 16 points. Finch’s approval rating is above 50 percent. Some concern for the Finch camp, city Dems by a 52 to 17 percent margin say the city’s headed in the wrong direction.
Still, Finch supporters will be heartened by these numbers considering an OIB poll one year ago had him in a statistical dead heat with Caruso. Finch also performs well, according to the poll, in a large primary field.
The latest OIB poll conducted by www.merrimanriver.com sampled just over 1000 likely Democratic voters. How can Finch be leading while Dems say they don’t like the direction of the city? No candidate is running an active race–mail, door-knocking, phone calls, advertising–against Finch to draw a contrast, exploit promises and weaknesses, explain why they’re better on taxes, public safety and services to sway voters to their side. In addition, two names measured against Finch in the poll are largely unknown, former Finch administration official John Gomes, and co-founder of the Bridgeport Bluefish Mary-Jane Foster, an executive at the University of Bridgeport.
If there’s a surprise in the poll it’s the spread Finch has over Caruso. Why is Finch doing better from one year ago? Finch’s public profile has been elevated the past four months following a tornado that struck the city, the deaths of two city firefighters in the line of duty, evening walks in response to a spike in crime and a taxpayer-paid media campaign promoting the city. But polls are snapshot in time and can change fast. Witness the evaporation of Ned Lamont’s large polling lead over Dan Malloy who won the Democratic gubernatorial primary by double digits.
A point of trepidation in the poll for Finch is direction of the city. Also, Finch, as one year ago, has trouble cracking 40 percent against Caruso and does not hit 50 percent against the other challengers. This could provide an opening for announced candidate John Gomes, Finch’s former deputy chief administrative officer, who has low name recognition. But can he raise money? It’s a must for someone unknown.
If Foster gets in the game officially, she could be a formidable candidate. She’ll raise money, is a strong public speaker and is well liked in both the political and business communities. She would have the ability to cut into Finch’s polling lead quickly. But will she get in? She enjoys her executive position at the University of Bridgeport.
The poll also showed that crime has re-emerged as a top issue as the city has experienced a spike in violent crime.
Highlights from the poll:
How do you feel things are going in Bridgeport? Do you feel that things in Bridgeport are moving in the right direction, or do you feel that things have gotten off on the wrong track?
Right Direction 17.27%
Wrong Track 51.91%
Staying the same 21.64%
Not sure 9.18%
Now, thinking about how you feel about the different candidates for mayor, who would you vote for if the primary election were between Mayor Bill Finch and State Representative Chris Caruso?
Finch 39.65%
Caruso 23.85%
Neither 12.16%
Not sure 24.33%
How about if the election were between Mayor Bill Finch and co-founder of the Bridgeport Bluefish, Mary-Jane Foster?
Finch 42.32%
Foster 22.88%
Neither 11.11%
Not sure 23.69%
How about if the election were between Mayor Bill Finch and former Finch administration official John Gomes?
Finch 47.32%
Gomes 14.26%
Neither 15.10%
Not sure 23.32%
Finally, among all four of the candidates – Bill Finch, Chris Caruso, Mary-Jane Foster, and John Gomes – who would be your first choice?
Finch 40.55%
Caruso 15.67%
Foster 13.63%
Gomes 4.77%
Other 5.11%
Not sure 20.27%
And overall, would you say that you generally approve or disapprove of Mayor Bill Finch’s job performance?
Approve strongly 21.28%
Approve somewhat 32.45%
Disapprove somewhat 10.77%
Disapprove strongly 16.36%
Not Sure 19.15%
And finally, what would you say is the most important issue facing Bridgeport?
Would you say it’s property taxes? Crime? Education and schools? Or Jobs?
Property Taxes 29.85%
Crime 22.12%
Education and Schools 17.10%
Jobs 22.52%
Other 3.66%
Not sure 4.75%
What wasn’t said was this poll took place only in the Black Rock section of Bridgeport with only Caucasian voters allowed to be polled. LMFAO.
Wrong info, just found out poll was conducted inside a undisclosed restaurant during a anti-Caruso fundraiser. Fire marshals had to stop the polling process after finding 1000 people jammed into the establishment, was over the allowed limit.
This message was NOT approved by Chris Caruso. Nor was this poll taken in the North End of Bpt. HaHa.
Are there no other Caruso backers awake and finding fault with this?
Pure horseshit.
The results of the poll are not surprising. They asked 1000 Democrats what they thought. Most registered Democrats don’t think and would vote for Wile E. Coyote if he were on the Democratic line.
What Mr. Gomes has got to do and do soon is get out in the public eye. Having no real newspaper in this city that is going to be a hard job. Having Ms. Curry blog for him here is not going to do it. Gomes has to appear at public meetings and speak out.
Caruso although better known than Gomes can not sit back and wait for the mayors chair to come to him. he needs to energize people and give the people of Bridgeport some hope.
Mary-Jane Foster is a figment of Lennie’s imagination and will not leave UB.
The Republicans; are there any left?
With a city that has a 60% dropout rate, lower-paid employees being asked to give back as much as 19 days pay while the appointees get raises and sons and daughters keep getting hired, while these career employees are let go the public sits on its dead ass and says nothing. The potential mayoral candidates say nothing and the local rag newspaper tells me about a barn dance in Newtown.
Do we the average taxpayers have a chance?
Lennie–In a hypothetical situation would Foster in the race split the Finch support down the middle with the moneychangers?
Hard to say because she doesn’t have a high profile with Dem voters. She would need to get in the game to judge that. But if someone like Ernie Newton got in the race he’d likely pull from Finch. The Moses of his peeps is telling folks he’s going to run. We’ll see.
Could he part the muddy waters or would he be singing the blues?
I’ve been seeing some Heave Himes signs popping up.
Perhaps Mark from Himes campaign should get some Dump Debicella signs if it isn’t “Above His Pay Grade!”
town committee // Sep 27, 2010 at 8:52 am
Responding to your posting on two points.
1. I’m on OIB now because my candidate and I share a common viewpoint with regard City Government in Bridgeport. It’s no different from when Sorenson wrote for Kennedy as when I write for Gomes. (Of course Sorenson remains one of the best ever with his writings).
2. Even the current Mayor has not been to see the voters who John M. Gomes is seeing. That’s because the Mayor doesn’t speak their language .. .literally and figuratively.
It is not about the 20% Registered Democratic voters that come out for the Mayor’s Primary election. It’s about the 80% who have not had a reason to vote. No trust … no vote.
Watch what a candidate for elective office in Bridgeport can do, who has not been recycled, machine-made and burdened with political baggage.
So listen, when you have time, come help us, you’re particularly savvy about Bridgeport.
Totally agree with yahooy and TC.
Poll was paid for by re-elect Finch 2011
I’m a North End Dem and my phone didn’t ring.
*** DON’T, DON’T BELIEVE THE (poll) HYPE! ***
BiB–Your phone, like you, was off the hook.
This message was paid for and approved by JohnMGomes.com
Oh my stars Rippy: always so negative–do you get enough fiber in your diet?
I’m a little constipated today. Reading your posts serves as a great stool softener. Uh Oh! I got to run!!!
*** Recent “Citizens United” landmark decision will bring more big businesses into politics for or against candidates. No need to contribute directly & meet standards when you can do your own thing! Ask the GOP they’re pros @ it by now. *** They’ll be more candidates for Mayor besides Gomes & Foster for sure, & doesn’t Newton have to pay up all agreed-to $ restitution and finish parole before even being able to vote? *** I hear Mr. Young will also run; why not its birthplace to the “greatest show on earth!” *** FORGETABOUTIT ***
Mojo, there’s no restriction on Newton running for public office while on supervised release provided he satisfies court-ordered restitution, etc.
Do you think there is a better way? You can do something about it here: www .40seats.com/ct4
It’s over for Himes.
TC, I disagree. Himes will come out on top. Why would anyone, even if they disagree with a Himes position, want to return to the failed policies of George Bush? As much as the media and political ads are trying to continue to scare people, they are ignoring the facts that the economy is recovering. It may be slower than people want but it is moving in the right direction. It took 8 years for Bush to take us from a balanced budget to disaster; it will take more than two to correct it. As to health care, the CT Post pointed out people who think health care didn’t go far enough outnumber people who want to dismantle it 2 to 1. (See www .ctpost.com/default/article/AP-Poll-Many-think-health-overhaul-should-do-more-674098.php.) I am out there every day knocking on doors or making phone calls and not once in a month and a half did I hear Obama’s health care was a problem. I heard, I need affordable health care, I can’t afford insurance, my child is a diabetic and I can’t buy his medicine even with Husky’s help.
Debicella would destroy any progress that is being made on restoring regulation to the banking and insurance industry. We have several environmental issues like drilling for oil and natural gas that need to be addressed. (Lest we start having issues like being able to light our faucet water on fire in CT due to fracking for natural gas. It is happening in PA and NY and many other states in the country.) Debicella has the worst environmental record in CT, and he would take that D.C. I believe I have stated quite clearly my objections on his stances on women’s issues as well. Debicella won’t go to Bridgeport himself and campaign on the streets. He was a partner with my opponent Rep. Hovey who used a scare campaign that I would “Bridgeportize” Monroe if I were elected. They both denigrated Bridgeport and their supporters continue to try to “scare” the people here urging them that all people who live, work or have ever worked in Bridgeport are corrupt. That‘s not the way to bring unity to our area. I know your stance on working together, but how can a person represent a whole district when he openly disdains the largest City in the district and the whole state? That worries me a lot and it should worry Bridgeport. TC, at least think about it.
“Greatest show on earth!” And it was just Barnum’s celebration in Bethel this past weekend!
Over for Himes? Republicans have presented no better plan. They say smaller government … etc. Under which GOP president in recent history did they have smaller government? Not Reagan, not Bush. GOP is really a big-government political party, they are big spenders and they oppose regulation, which contributed to financial collapse.
Both parties are not yet saying the right things though and I am not sure how close we need to get to double-dip economic downturn to realize this: We need transparency and accountability and courage implemented.
As for Finch, we had full hour on TV show “Bridgeport Now” last week providing city residents a chance to voice their view of Mayor Finch and got a lot of callers, kind of nonstop. I don’t know if I would say they agreed with these recent poll numbers reported here though.
One more thing, the sewage regional plan … seems like people are really pushing for this to happen. Why now? It is not a backdoor way to send other towns’ sewage to Bridgeport, right?
Bridgeport Now–Based on your above statement of:
“One more thing, the sewage regional plan … seems like people are really pushing for this to happen. Why now? It is not a backdoor way to send other towns’ sewage to Bridgeport, right?”
I guess the suburbs are saying to Bridgeport. May I push your stool in for you!
Uh, honestly, no play on words was intended when I wrote that.
Ernie Newton should regain his seat (when HE believes he is ready) and serve those who haven’t been represented in his absence. If his thoughts are in running for Mayor, then he should seek a council seat. Ernie hasn’t lost a step and has many, many friends (me included). I wish him well no matter what he decides.
Pure horseshit.
MCAT how many people you talked to understand what the health care bill is? I have tried and I don’t understand most of it. Most of the congressional people and senators don’t really know what’s in it. Sure if you have a pre-existing condition you can now get health insurance bu What is the COST? One story I read the premium for a mother with a child who had a pre-existing condition was over $9,000 per year who can afford that? Not too many in my city.
The economy has improved slightly? How can you say that when we still have an unemployment rate over 9%? How about the trillions that have been spent in the past 18 months? The American people will speak in November and it will not be pretty. I will leave you with this, the last 2 years of the Bush presidency the Democrats were in charge of both houses of congress. Do they have any blame for some of what we are going through now or was it just Bush all by himself?
I find this poll so interesting and it can be spun in so many ways. Finch with a huge lead with a year to go, or Caruso not into the hunt with a big wave and push coming, or Gomes an unknown getting 14% with a year to go has to bode well for his hopes, and Foster a popular candidate if she jumps in. What if Caruso and Gomes formed an alliance?
The two clean-house candidates together would form a hard to beat duo. Which one would take the top spot to be determined by them of course, but you would have a top ticket with Caruso’s political savvy and Gomes’ CitiStat and business experience. Foster has the money and the Black Rockers behind her but has a great job and has said she loves it, but would make a wonderful candidate if she joins the fun. Finch is doing the things he needs to do and will make a tough champion to beat without a knockout, can’t wait for the fun to begin once November is over and Malloy is top Hartford dog.
The crux of the health reform that has the insurance lobbyists in high gear is the requirement that 85% of the premiums collected must go into health care; not administration; not bonuses for the CEO’s; not money for the lobbyists … it will be required to go into direct health care. That requirement hasn’t kicked in yet. It goes into effect in a couple of years. Therefore the health insurance companies are raising their rates. They are betting the farm they can fund candidates who will throw out health reform. Now, I believe the 85% requirement is essential so I am in favor of the health reform. We need to be smart and see through the rhetoric. Yes insuring kids up to 26; eliminating pre-existing condition exclusions for children; removing the lifetime cap; and restricting companies from throwing someone off their policy due to a health condition are all health reform improvements; but the 85% restriction is what will benefit everyone if it stays in the law.
My take on the poll … different from last year’s poll there are no candidates with name recognition who split the Finch vote. If a Fabrizi or Ganim were considering a run, Finch’s numbers would drop drastically. There are others like Newton, Ayala etc … that would cut his support fast and deep. His support, while showing up a little bit, is soft. Gomes is splitting the anti vote. Foster is not well known … but I agree would make a very interesting candidate. She could raise the money and she would take the city in a more positive direction. She is a consensus builder who would be good to her word and a great cheerleader for the City for starters. Next September is a lifetime away in politics. I think you will see more people jumping in in the next few months. Finch is vulnerable … his best chance is to keep everyone but Gomes and Caruso out of the race … that’s all from this armchair political junkie …
Someone should ask Finch why are there still tree trunks and stumps at Main St. and Congress St? The tornado was in June! It’s going into October! What a great job this Admin is doing!
They had to bring a foreman from the Parks Dept over to the Roadway Dept to handle the street paving that is going on. Because none of the Foreman in the Roadway Dept know anything about paving the street. Can you believe this crap?
Even the new Big Shot Boss in the Roadway Dept knows nothing about street paving! He just has connections like the other foreman in the Roadway Dept! People wonder why the City looks the way it does? Put people in charge who know about the work to be performed in their own Dept! It’s still not what you know but who you know and the City and ta payers suffer! Finch you don’t have my vote! Never will, you should be ashamed! How could you and your CLOWNS even think of running again! God Help Us!!!