Jim Callahan is among the last of the old-time newspaper eccentrics. He struck a nerve throughout the decades of many city politicians. Some loved him (Hey, how about a Topstone?) Some couldn’t stand him. (Hey, try out this flight of stairs, tumble, tumble.) Through it all he studied city politicians and elections for the Bridgeport Post-Telegram, predecessor papers of the Connecticut Post, and The Bridgeport Light, a community weekly newspaper that did its part to shake things up. For some of us, city politics is a narcotic. When he was an active city scribe Callahan was one of those two-fisted journalists. He wrote and snapped pictures. Maybe his ultimate photo moment came when he landed a beauty of Mario Testa, the current Democratic town chair, and old political warhorse Michael Rizzitelli duking it out at the July 1989 DTC endorsement session for mayor.
Callahan will be in town to help OIB figure out this crazy primary season. Both of us have been around since the late 1970s and this primary is among the most bizarre. He shares his take, in Callahan speak, on next Tuesday’s mayoral primary between Mayor Bill Finch and Mary-Jane Foster here:
By JIM CALLAHAN
All political writers who make election predictions should also be required to include the following:
Actual results may differ materially from forward-looking statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties. No assurance can be given that any of the assumptions are worth a hang once the customers start, if they ever start, to use due diligence in considering any or all or none of the rascals seeking to strategize, homogenize and harmonize the Corporation of Bridgeport, Conn.
That stated, Mayor Bill Finch should win Tuesday’s Democratic primary over challenger Mary-Jane Foster.
Elaine Ficarra, the mayor’s press secretary, can send me a box of cigars now. That will be Muniemakers, Elaine, the long ones with the mild wrapper.
Supporters of challenger Foster, however, should not run over to the hardware store for a section of lawn hose to hook up to their auto exhaust just yet.
We’ll run through the list of Finch strengths first before we get to the reasons why Ficarra won’t be picking up the Muniemakers.
The mayor is there. He controls the castle. There are some jobs that go with that. He has the support of the Democratic Town Committee. They vote and through their experience, they know other people who vote and are likely to vote their way.
This is an “X” factor for Finch. Whether this “X” factor is 500 votes (seems very low), or 3,000 votes (seems very high), it is a number.
Foster starts out with zero. So from the get-go it is Finch X, Foster 0.
It gets worse.
There are 40,000 voters registered Democrat eligible to vote in this primary. Many of them registered for a presidential election or some other election. In any case, they have no interest in THIS election. We can cut the number of possible voters to 10,000.
But which 10,000?
Not to worry. Mario knows! That would be Mario Testa, the Democratic town chairman. Not Mario personally mind you, but all those fine Democratic committee members who elected Mario their leader, and those loyal supporters of the mayor.
Truth be told, Mario is probably only comfortable with 5,000 registered Democrats. This includes the X voters. Supporters of the mayor feel likewise. TV ads and mailings may be directed to all voters, but the mayor and Mario are looking for fewer than that. They count on it.
The count gets very ugly for this incumbent after that. Only 8800 voted in the primary for mayor in 2007 between State Sen. Bill Finch and State Rep. Chris Caruso. Finch won by 270. Finch got 4,500 votes. After four years as mayor, people will naturally look at their mayor as their leader and be inclined to support him.
And then there are those who will not. There are 500 to 1,500 people who will vote against a Bridgeport mayor just because he is on the ballot. They always do. Start with them.
Then there are the people who do not like the way the city is going, or are unsure of it. Then there are the people who think Mary-Jane Foster is just better, period. This could be a lot of people, but we just don’t know until they vote, if they vote.
A baseball manager once said any manager had eight players who like him, and eight players who hate him. The successful manager kept the eight who weren’t sure away from the eight who hate him.
That’s the job of the Foster campaign: to screw up Mario the manager. The Foster people have to get those who dislike Finch together with those who aren’t sure. Then she beats Finch. Mario and company already know who like Finch. They want them to vote. The rest are chancy.
The Foster campaign, starting at an organizational disadvantage, has to get all the anti-Finch people working together and then find the people who aren’t sure. Getting an organization together is tough enough. Then you have to find your voters and get them out.
There is reason to take heart. Polling consistently shows about 40 percent support the mayor. So the anti vote is out there.
Bridgeport also shows marvelous consistency in its opposition to incumbents. They are the areas with large amounts of homeowners, whether it be in Black Rock, upper West Side, the North End, the Upper East Side. The Foster people know where to start.
The Foster people then have to crack into organization areas of the South End, lower West Side, East Side and East End where renters are much higher.
Housing projects, if they vote, usually favor the organization because of pull operations. They can go the other way, if they vote, if a challenge is organized.
The Foster campaign got an unintended gift when the Registrars forced them into court over their petitions. The extra two weeks of campaigning may help iron out organizational problems.
Issues? Taxes count. Finch did not raise them this year, and voters appreciate that. But the financial instability of the city remains lurking. The mayor’s takeover of the schools was very inelegant politically. The mayor has made enemies of former friends.
In a primary with a small base of voters, the guy who knows his vote and can get his vote out has the best shot. That’s the mayor. But if the Foster people can find the polls, look out.
Vote Foster now, let’s give them a shock on Tuesday. I already voted ab for Foster. I did not vote in the 2007 election but this year I voted. My family who votes over at Dunbar did not vote in 2007 but they’re sure voting and they are all voting for Foster. Look out for a shock on the 27th. Vote row B!!! I already did, now it’s your turn!!!
Just got off the phone with Bill Finch. He called to speak with my husband, but since he wasn’t home yet, I had quite a conversation with him. When he asked if we were voting for him, I told him we wouldn’t vote for him even if he did win the upcoming primary. He spent the next 5 minutes telling me about his accomplishments which I refuted and then added some of my own comments. I must say it felt very odd to tell him bluntly how I felt, and I found myself telling him it wasn’t personal–I just believe Bridgeport needs a change from business as usual. I did thank him for taking the time to call. Afterwards I was left wondering, if the outcome of the primary was so certain, why would he be taking the time to make these calls personally?
Because the outcome is NOT certain–and the spineless wonder is worried!!!
He’s worried, Sheepthrills. In spite of the tepid endorsements from a few unions and the local paper (which comes across as more of a gag or a joke than an actual endorsement) and Mario Testa’s AB mechanism filling out ballots for the dead and dying, his re-election is not a sure thing. It is a sign of desperation if Bill Finch is making calls himself. He’s up against it with Mary-Jane Foster’s campaign. She has money and more than a few volunteers to man the phones and walk the walk. All he has at his back is a corrupt political machine that is a little tired.
Surprise, It’s Bridgeport!
Lennie just loves posting that picture!
So does Mario!
Jim Fox and Jill Hughes are Kickin’ Ass in Black Rock, Go Jim & Jill!
Was there a throw-down in the middle of Fairfield Ave there, Fluck?
What constitutes “kicking ass?”
What do we know about Jim and Jill? Really …
Jim–Has multiple personalities that manifest themselves here on blogs, albeit makes some good points on occasion.
Jill–Lived here only a couple years, and her husband is seen chasing any twenty-year-old in a skirt. Not her fault, but it is what it is. She and hubby lived her for more than a year before registering their cars here and paying taxes here.
What will make either of these two effective?
Have you ever dealt with the city or any city office personally and realize how slow the process to get anything done is?
You call this a prediction? I’ll give you two boxes of Muniemakers if you express what you mean.
Great piece, Jim Callahan. I’d expected a lot more than eight comments by now. Did anyone check any of MJF’s supporters car garages? I’m sure many folks like or don’t like to read articles like this one. This coming Sunday is the last day of opportunity available to convince anyone who hasn’t made up their mind. MOM: Message, Operation, Money, can only take you so far. Is the message reaching the people? If so what’s the effect of the counter-message by the other side? Is the Operation the right one, does it consist of a back-up plan, how is your plan different from the other camp? One thing I’ve learned from campaigns is they always ask these questions after the election or primary and the sincere answer is always–NO.
It would be nice if Caruso got off his fat ass and rallied all of the people who think he’s pretty into voting for the very change he hoped for last time. Why this guy has remained mute is beyond me. Livelihood preservation, perhaps?