Game On: Face Of Failure Or Face Of Reform?

One week from Tuesday Mayor Bill Finch is expected to receive the Democratic Town Committee endorsement for another four-year term. Over the next eight weeks three challengers, Mary-Jane Foster, John Gomes and Charlie Coviello, will try to persuade Democratic voters to fire the incumbent assuming they secure the 2,000 or so certified petition signatures required to make it on the September primary ballot. This is not a layup. It’s hard work. Challengers can take out petition papers the morning after the endorsement session with two weeks to submit signatures.

State control of the Board of Education has taken center stage. The notion that the Bridgeport Board of Education has been “reconstituted” as the state bureaucrats maintain is a bunch of crap. For now, and perhaps several years, the state is in charge to try to turn the school system around. Will the campaign focus be on the failure or the reform? If it’s failure, advantage opposition. If it’s reform, advantage Finch. What we heard from Finch for nearly four years was schools were improving each year. Then one day Finch announced schools were a disaster and state intervention was required because no one locally was competent to educate the kids.

Irrespective of the education mess, taxes and jobs remain central issues, according to OIB polling. Who’s going to stabilize taxes, lay the foundation to attract jobs and improve services? If opponents cannot inspire Democratic voters to the polls on these main points Finch should survive barring a major gaffe, especially in a large field splitting the anti-vote. But this race is much more uncertain than it was weeks ago evidenced by Finch and Gomes sharpening attacks on Foster whose voter outreach has begun to stick.

Finch has the financial firepower to unload negatives on Foster if the Finch camp sees Foster edging too close for comfort. This election is serious business for Finch, far more than extending a political career. This is about his financial livelihood with two young boys to raise. Finch is not a man of wealth. His mayoral salary plus benefits is by far the most he’s earned in any professional capacity. Finch, meanwhile, will be throwing lots of convenient love Gomes’ way. He wants Gomes to stay in the race to take votes from Foster. Whatever ill will Finch and Gomes had over their falling-out more than a year ago following Gomes’ dismissal as deputy chief administrative officer means nothing to Finch now. As long as Gomes stays in the race the Finch forces will be happy to absorb any criticism that comes the mayor’s way from Gomes.

Turnout will be key. The 2003 Democratic primary with a six-candidate field produced a 38 percent turnout representing just over 12,000 votes cast. Coviello finished dead last in that primary garnering just a few hundred votes. The close primary between Finch and Caruso in 2007 (the only two on the ballot) had a 25 percent turnout representing 8,800 voters. Finch has a spending advantage and Democratic party establishment turning out the base party vote. John Fabrizi, as the party-endorsed Dem in 2003 received just over 4,000 votes, Finch roughly 4,500 votes in 2007. Let’s say Finch secures the same vote total in September as he did four years ago. A 25 percent turnout, or roughly 10,500 voting Dems based on the current registration, would leave enough votes to make a competitive race depending on the vote splitting. Anything under 10,000 votes should be advantage Finch. The turnout would have to push closer to 12,000 votes, approaching 30 percent, for an opposition candidate to take him out, assuming it remains a four-candidate primary.

One thing is for certain, the game is on and this election season will not be boring.