Why Fabs Isn’t Running

If you want to run for mayor, or if you’re a former mayor who wants to run for mayor, you must get in the game. Relying on unforeseen circumstances, a rich uncle or a magical coalition to set it up for you isn’t going to work. Not against a well financed incumbent. If you want it, you must go get it.

Former Mayor John Fabrizi didn’t want it bad enough. Not when he learned that Democratic Town Chair Mario Testa’s poll didn’t show him close enough to Mayor Bill Finch. Fabs announced on Monday he’s not running for his old job. Since spring of 2007, when Democratic party operatives–led by former Town Chair John Stafstrom and current City Council President Tom McCarthy–threw Fabs under the bus when a poll showed he could not survive a primary against Chris Caruso after Fabs walked into a courtroom to seek leniency on behalf of a sexual offender who was friends with his son, Fabs never stopped thinking about getting his job back. Thinking and doing are two different worlds.

Fabs had relied on a strategy of party regulars gravitating back to him out of frustration with Mayor Bill Finch. Finch has not been good, far from it, but he hasn’t been bad enough for most pols to walk away. Not yet, anyway. (Finch supporters, feel free to weigh in on why hizzoner has done a great job.) Fabs has pretty much disappeared in his Board of Education job since 2007. He said very little publicly, even though he prodded party pols to support him. If you want to get back in the game you must stay active, raise money, speak out, or be forgotten. Voters forgot Fabs because he relied on a failed strategy. Fabs has always been coddled by process. Someone else had always set it up for him. Not this time. Had Fabs stayed visible, formed a campaign committee to raise money and contrasted his mayoralty with Finch’s, he’d be in the game. No fire.

Mario Testa’s poll reflects voter insight of the latest OIB poll. Finch leads opponents, but with a gigantic concern from voters. Democratic voters don’t like the direction of the city. By an overwhelming margin the OIB poll that sampled roughly 1200 likely Democratic voters showed electors think the city’s headed in the wrong direction. That’s never good for an incumbent.

Head to head matchups seven months before a Democratic primary are not as important as how voters feel about the incumbent and direction of the city. Voters are not happy about Finch’s job performance. This provides an opening for challengers. But only if they can frame an alternative. That requires an assist from dear old MOM, money, organization and message. And they must show fire, whether Mary-Jane Foster, John Gomes or Charlie Coviello, or anyone else who wants to get in the game. It takes a lot of work.

So, when I’m asked if Finch can be taken out as mayor, I say difficult, but doable. Who has the fire? Plus the help of dear ol’ MOM?