My Ears Hurt, The Reality About Polls, Wake Up CT Post!

Quinnipiac Poll: June 2010, Ned Lamont 39, Dan Malloy 22. Malloy wins August primary by double digits.

Quinnipiac Poll: July 2010, Tom Foley 48, Michael Fedele 13. Fedele loses by just a couple of points and if he had one more week he fillets Foley.

What did Malloy and Fedele have in common? Public financing, yes, but both had only begun in earnest–Malloy June and Fedele July–to blast their message.

When I managed Bill Finch’s campaign for state senate in 2000, our poll had Finch trailing Republican Lee Scarpetti by 25 points first week of September. Finch won by double digits.

Finch’s own internal poll had him trailing State Rep. Chris Caruso by 10 points two months before the September 2007 mayoral primary. Finch defeated Caruso by a couple of points.

On Monday I received phone calls, emails from readers, friends, pols, etc. some of whom like Finch–but don’t like the way he governs–astonished at the results of the latest OIB poll. Finch leading all potential candidates should not be a shock. No one is running a serious race against him yet.

John Gomes has announced, but can he raise money? Caruso has been relatively quiet. Beyond taking the lead on derailing Jodi’s jail on the Upper East Side, the Big Wave has been silent this past year. He hasn’t said anything about the budget deficit, nothing about layoffs, Finch job hires while little people get pink-slipped,  little about education and crime, or a proposal for a regional wastewater treatment authority. Nothing about Finch’s campaign pledge to cut taxes $600 only to raise them by more than that since he’s been in office. Caruso, who does not have a November challenge, is waiting for the election to run its course before he makes a final decision to get in the mayoral game. Why would a majority of voters knight him, one year from a primary, the front runner?

No elected official has taken on Finch beyond City Councilman Bob Walsh. We try to do our part here at little OIB informing readers about the kooky world of city politics and government. We have a couple of thousand active Bridgeport readers and I dare say all of them vote. But Bridgeport also has many thousands more in the city that don’t know (or care) that this outlet exists.

The Connecticut Post? My friends there have decided better to cover the ‘burbs. One reporter, Keila Torres (she’s mighty good) covers the city on a regular basis. She cannot do it alone. Yes, it’s amazing Hearst Newspapers has just one full-time scribe to cover the state’s largest city. Actually, it’s pathetic. So a lot of the stuff that gets debated here might get picked up by the Post a week later, if at all. No one at The Post covers City Hall on a regular basis. That’s just the way City Hall likes it. Oh, no one’s watching? We can do what we want. Finch has no clue what it’s like to have a half-dozen or more first-class reporters covering the administration. If that were the case Chief of Staff Adam Wood and Communications Director Elaine Ficarra would have a closet full of barf bags in their offices.

So that’s part of the reason Finch runs ahead of potential opponents. At this stage of the game, however, I don’t pay attention so much to the head-to-head beauty contests. What struck me most in the OIB poll was the question of right direction/wrong direction. By a walloping margin city Dems say the city’s going in the wrong direction. That creates a huge hole for either Finch to fill as mayor or an opponent to fill.

OIB will poll again in November. Any other candidates want to get in the game?