Primaries are screwy wabbits, the math often at odds with general election voters. Diehard ideology, far left and hard right, turn out in primaries. Statewide, general elections swing often on the domination of unaffiliated voters in Connecticut, a closed primary state.
Yes, Governor Ned Lamont enjoys tasty polling numbers among state electors as he has positioned himself favorably in the middle. Throw in a curvy question, however, that resonates with libs now those polling numbers turn sour for the incumbent.
Ten months from a state convention, Hamden State Rep. Joshua Elliott, an unabashed liberal, is challenging Lamont who he claims is out of step with the issues that matter, a point taken in a poll featured in this CT Mirror story.
In Bridgeport, Lamont faces some grousing as well after vetoing a bill to incentivize more affordable housing.
A poll of Democratic voters commissioned by a coalition of labor and advocacy groups suggests that Gov. Ned Lamont’s unexpected veto of a housing bill and his consistent opposition to raising taxes on the wealthy would make him vulnerable to “credible opposition” in a primary for a third-term nomination.
The survey produced for the left-leaning Connecticut for All comes as the governor is trying to ease tensions with liberals through a soft campaign of outreach, including a meeting scheduled Wednesday night at the Executive Residence with the chairs of urban Democratic town committees.
By slightly more than a 2-1 margin, likely voters in a Democratic primary say Lamont should be nominated to a third term in 2026, a result generally consistent with a survey published on May 29 by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
But the difference is the new poll tests the strength of Lamont’s support and concludes it crumbles with a push: A critical statement that asserts, among other things, “Governor Lamont has already served two terms and he is out of step with where Connecticut needs to go in the future.”
With that prompt, the 61% to 27% split in favor of a third term turns upside down, with 36% in favor and 52% opposed. The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted from July 7-10, using live callers and text-to-web responses. It claims a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
The poll is the most public piece of a nascent campaign to nudge Lamont, a Democrat who has described himself as seriously considering a run for a third term, either towards retirement or a move to the left on taxes, spending and housing policies.
“The data here is clear. So long as Lamont maintains positions on important policy questions that are in opposition to nearly the entire Democratic Party, he will be vulnerable to a challenge from a credible opposition,” concludes the pollster, GBAO of Washington, D.C. “The dramatic drop in support for Governor Lamont with just one statement highlights how difficult it could be for him to secure renomination.”
Rep. Joshua Elliott, D-Hamden, a liberal, has declared a challenge to Lamont, but he acknowledges that none of the labor unions involved in Connecticut for All have flocked to his candidacy or pronounced him the “credible opposition” capable of blocking the governor’s nomination to another term.
Connecticut for All’s steering committee includes the Connecticut AFL-CIO, the Working Families Party, AFSCME Council 4, the State Employees Bargaining Agent Coalition, SEIU 1199, the Connecticut Tenants Union and groups promoting women’s rights and health care for immigrants.
The organization provided to the The Connecticut Mirror a two-page memo dated July 18 with top-line results and an analysis by the pollster. It provides no subsets by gender or race, but states that only 29% of non-white primary voters still favored the governor’s reelection after the push-question prompt.
The prompt upending support for a third term details three elements of Lamont’s record, including a line of attack employed without success by Republicans in 2022: faulting Lamont for contracting for what then were scarce COVID tests with four companies, one of which had been supported with investments from his wife’s venture capital firm.
Poll respondents were read this statement: “Lamont vetoed a housing bill written by Democrats that would have added 100,000 new units to the state, bringing down costs for homeowners and renters. He has refused to raise taxes on millionaires to pay for investments in education and health care and he has faced criticism for awarding contracts to companies where his wife has significant investments.”
The statement offered a generous assessment of House Bill 5002, the omnibus housing measure unexpectedly vetoed by Lamont. Its authors proposed the bill as an important step towards making progress towards meeting a need for 100,000 new units, not as the means to produce that number.
But the Lamont administration has acknowledged a need to mend fences after the vetoes of the housing bill and a measure that would have provided jobless benefits for strikers, both priorities of various elements of the Democratic coalition and its party’s legislative leaders.
Since the vetoes, the governor has held public events aimed at highlighting what the administration insists is a relatively progressive record, even though Lamont’s political identity centers on fiscal policies dedicated to using surpluses to retire debt and fill budget reserves.
One publicized a deal with the state’s 17 community health centers to boost Medicaid reimbursement rates. On Thursday, he and Treasurer Erick Russell are to detail the $200 million deposited into a new early education trust fund that will produce free or reduced child care.
“From making Connecticut more affordable for working families by cutting taxes or championing progressive priorities such as free childcare for families making less than $100k, paid family and medical leave, or increasing our minimum wage to one of the highest in the country, the Governor has been focused on strengthening our communities and economy,” Rob Blanchard, a Lamont spokesman, said in a statement. “Regardless of what any poll says —even the ones that show the Governor with a 63% approval rating — he remains focused on making historic investments in education, ensuing every child has the best opportunity and bringing costs down for families across Connecticut.”
A recent Morning Consult poll showed Lamont with 63% approving of his performance and 29% disapproving.
Norma Martinez HoSang, the director of Connecticut for All, pointed to two questions that reflect “real concerns about Governor Lamont’s path forward” and accused him of protecting “the ultra wealthy at the expense of everyone else.”
The GBAO poll found at least 90% of Democratic primary voters agreed with two statements:
- “Connecticut should follow states like Massachusetts and New Jersey and enact a modest tax on millionaires to pay for investments in education and and affordable housing.”
- “In order to make the types of investments we need in housing, schools, health care and other critical areas, Connecticut needs to be open to raising taxes on millionaires and wealthy corporations.”
This article first appeared on CT Mirror and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
These days poll results are frequent and cover a multitude of subjects. On the Federal level, a cumulative consideration of various current poll results covering multiple areas of current consequence including the border, immigration, the Big Bad Bill, DOGE accountability and effect, rule of law vs rule by Executive Order, attack on d.i.e at all levels, and foreign policy posturing including “tariff deals” indicate the widest dissatisfaction with a President early in his term.
What if we could vote more frequently, especially when our elected representatives are failing to converse across the aisle, which is a necessary step to getting the work done by focus on the common good. Why is the special good enshrined and carried forward by a party whose members are no longer aligned with so many of the issues of our day? Get informed by study, not merely by scanning. Converse with your neighbors, especially those who hold opinions different from you. Collaborate on the facts that are important. Civics is the study of citizen rights and responsibilities. When duties and obligations are not observed, tyrrany grows roots to strangle freedoms. Time will tell.