If Ganim Runs, It’s A Game Changer–But How? Plus, The Finch Strategy

On Monday OIB sized up the mayoral race with Bill Finch poised, barring a new dynamic, for reelection. What could change the dimension beyond a gaffe from the incumbent or current mayoral challengers dramatically stepping up their game? Former Mayor Joe Ganim. If he gets in, the mayoral campaign changes radically from an incumbent mayor emphasizing accomplishments and largely ignoring opponents to one of guerrilla warfare.

The big question: if Ganim gets in will it be as a Democrat, an independent in the general election, or both?

The former mayor, who served from November 1991 to April 2003 before driven out by his public corruption conviction, has been banging phones soliciting campaign support trying to figure out the best strategy, according to city pols.

On Monday OIB shared a September Democratic primary scenario, based on the current field of challengers, that benefits Finch. Mary-Jane Foster, John Gomes and Charlie Coviello carve up the anti-vote and  Finch cruises to a primary win riding the base party support. OIB polling shows in a head-to-head match up that Finch has a single-digit lead over Joe Ganim among Democratic primary voters. When Ganim, Finch, Foster, Gomes and Coviello are tested in a large field, Ganim pulls into a single-digit lead. What’s going on?

Polling shows that nostalgia for Ganim exists in the African American and Latino communities. He has a large lead over Finch among those constituencies. Finch, however, enjoys a commanding lead over Ganim in the higher turnout predominantly white precincts in Black Rock, North End and West Side. What gives? Black and brown voters tend to be more forgiving, and it simply may be a question of economics. Many have friends or family members who’ve experienced problems with the law with a healthy skepticism toward cops. In addition, minority voters saw progress under Ganim.

So why does a large Democratic primary field benefit Ganim? He brings a base of support to the table. Meanwhile polling shows that Mary-Jane Foster performs well in the higher turnout areas that support Finch over Ganim. In a large field that includes Ganim, Foster takes votes from Finch. So if Ganim jumps into the primary look for a Finch supporter who’s friends with Foster to persuade her out of the race. The initial conversation could go something like this:

“Mary-Jane, do you really want to see Joe Ganim back as mayor?”

“Well, if you’re so concerned about that,” Foster might reply, “tell Finch to support me.”

So far the Finch forces have correctly responded to Foster in measured tones. They’d be smart to continue doing that. If Ganim gets in as a Democrat it becomes a Finch-Ganim race with both camps throwing bombs. Finch and Ganim have never been buds. There’s a possibility for Foster to frame herself as the alternative, but that depends if Foster and her operatives know how to sell that message. It’s a big if. To OIB friends supporting John Gomes and Charlie Coviello, forget it. They don’t have the firepower to be factors in this scenario.

Could Ganim decide screw it, forget the 2,000 petition signatures required to get on the ballot as a Dem, I’ll take my chances as an independent in the general election trying to appeal to a broader range of voters including 20,000 unaffiliated voters? Maybe, but does he risk turning off Democratic voters in the general election? And what do unaffiliated voters think of Joe?

But could Ganim follow two scenarios? Running in a Democratic primary and also have a Plan B scenario? That would mean anticipating a general election candidacy as a petitioning candidate in case the primary didn’t work out. But couldn’t Finch do the same? What if Ganim runs and wins a Democratic primary? Maybe Finch could enthuse all those unaffiliated voters, along with like-mined Dems, to support him in the general.

Is this nuts? Never hurts to consider all the possibilities. Let’s see if Ganim plays or goes back to the family farm in Easton.