Himes-Debicella Still Tight

From www.ctcapitolreport.com:

HARTFORD, CT (October 29, 2010) – Democratic U.S. Representatives Jim Himes and Chris Murphy trail their Republican opponents, Dan Debicella and Sam Caligiuri, according to a poll released today by CT Capitol Report. In the survey, Representative Himes has 46.1 percent to Debicella’s 48.0 percent and Representative Murphy has 45.5 percent to Caligiuri’s 46.9 percent.

The poll was commissioned by CT Capitol Report and conducted by the Merriman River Group on October 24-26, 2010. In the fourth congressional district, 571 voters were surveyed of which 4.6 percent are still unsure of whom they will support.

There is a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent.

In the fifth congressional district, 595 voters were surveyed and 3.7 percent are still unsure of whom they will support. There is a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percent.

“The fourth congressional district continues to be a tight fight within our margin of error,” says the poll’s Executive Director, Matthew Fitch. “Representative Himes fares well among women and the highly educated. He is struggling to win over male voters, and people who identify with the Tea Party are giving Himes the most trouble.

Dan Debicella is winning Tea Party voters by a 10-1 margin, while Himes leads everyone else 56-39. One troubling sign for Himes is his poor showing among Catholic voters. They are apt to be a swing group with a slight Republican lean in most races this year and they are breaking heavily for Debicella by a 60-34 margin.

“With the President coming to Bridgeport for Representative Himes on Saturday, the question continues to focus on turnout. It is clear that Representative Himes will win Bridgeport by a large percentage, but he may need at least 30,000 people to come out to vote from that city to offset expected losses in the rest of the district. This is one election where the hourly turnout numbers may tell us the story before 8:00 p.m. on Election Day.”