Foley Leads Dems In Guber Poll, Race Still Wide Open

Rasmussen Reports shows Republican Tom Foley, who’s spending heavily on television, with a lead over Democrats Ned Lamont and former Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy.

Rasmussen is one of the more accurate pollsters in the country. There’s some good news here for the leading GOP and Dem gubernatorial contenders, but arguably the best news for Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele who’s in the game despite pathetic name recognition and a bank account relying on public financing. Foley is financing his own race. How can you be second in command for more than three years yet so unknown? Lieutenant governors are generally locked in a closet. They have feeble statutory power beyond replacing an incapacitated/resigned chief executive. Paging Jodi Rell.

The fact these poll numbers show an unknown GOP pol so close to the leading Dems says unaffiliated voters, for now, are breaking for the GOP. But Fedele has a tall task pushing Foley out for the GOP nomination. If you’re Foley, you’re pleased that his heavy spending has him in the lead. If you’re leading Dems Ned Lamont and Dan Malloy they’re both within single digits of Foley heading into the state party convention next month. Lamont is spending millions of his own money while Malloy relies on public financing. From Rasmussen:

Republican Thomas Foley now enjoys a modest lead over his two top Democratic opponents in Connecticut’s gubernatorial race, a contest that was a toss-up two months ago.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Foley leading businessman Ned Lamont 44% to 37%. In early February, Foley trailed Lamont 40% to 37%. Seven percent (7%) now prefer some other candidate, and 13% are undecided.

Foley, a former U.S. ambassador to Ireland, leads ex-Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy 44% to 35%. The two men were virtually tied in the previous survey. Given this match-up, eight percent (8%) favor another candidate, and 14% are undecided.

The other top GOP hopeful, Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele, now runs closely with both Democrats. Lamont leads Fedele 41% to 38%, down from an eight-point lead in February. Nine percent (9%) like another candidate, and 12% are undecided.

Malloy leads Fedele 40% to 37%, with 7% preferring another candidate and 16% undecided. In February, Malloy had a negligible 36% to 35% lead.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls.) Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

Most male voters continue to prefer Republican contenders in the match-ups, while most female voters prefer the Democrats. Unaffiliated voters favor the Republican in every match-up.

Primary elections for both parties will be held August 10.

Foley is viewed very favorably by 10% of Connecticut voters, very unfavorably by six percent (6%).

Eighteen percent (18%) have a very favorable view of Lamont, who beat Senator Joseph Lieberman for Connecticut’s Democratic Senate nomination in 2006 and then lost the general election to the longtime senator when the latter opted to run as an independent. Twenty-two percent (22%) view Lamont very unfavorably.

For Malloy, very favorables are 12% and very unfavorables 11%.

Fedele is the least-known of the candidates, with three percent (3%) very favorable toward him and five percent (5%) very unfavorable.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Incumbent Republican Governor Jodi Rell, who decided not to pursue a second term despite her popularity, enjoys 63% job approval from Connecticut voters. That number includes 21% who strongly approve of her performance. Only 34% disapprove, including 15% who strongly disapprove.