From the advocacy group ImpactCT
Last week, we released a poll, by Change Research, of 887 registered CT Democrats who are likely to vote in August’s primary election between incumbent Governor Ned Lamont and progressive challenger, Josh Elliott. We encourage you to explore the detailed memo, toplines and crosstabs. For more coverage of our poll, see here.
As Dan Haar wrote, the core finding is that Lamont is well ahead overall, but Elliott, who is expected to qualify for public financing in the next few days which would give him close to $4 Million to spend, has a clear opening with younger voters. Before voters received any information about the candidates, Lamont led Elliott 58% to 20%. After respondents read balanced, positive and negative descriptions of both candidates, Lamont’s lead narrowed to 47% to 30%. Haar’s piece goes on to emphasize that turnout will likely be a big obstacle for Elliott, because older voters are far more likely to participate in the August primary, giving Lamont a structural advantage despite Elliott’s strength with younger Democrats.
Our poll suggests that Elliott’s path is narrow but real: he would need to dramatically raise awareness, define the race around economic affordability and tax fairness, and mobilize younger voters who are historically unlikely to vote in a late summer primary. Lamont’s advantages are his broad favorability, older-voter strength, and financial capacity.
As we’ve been saying since before the Convention, Lamont remains the favorite. Now that the stage is set, will he treat Josh as a minor distraction, a cautionary signal, or a legitimate rival? And can Josh build an affordability brand and convert voters?.
As a lifelong Connecticut resident that has witnessed its steady decline on all fronts, but especially in the standard of living and future prospects of its residents, I am looking for a renaissance gubernatorial candidate who is thinking in terms of breaking the many, bad steady habits maintained by the Connecticut oligarchy (e.g., regressive tax structure and protection of the public-utility monopoly system), that have put Connecticut and its future behind the Eight Ball. It seems that Josh Elliot might be such a candidate, who, as governor, could think and act in terms of a state takeover of all essential state public utilities as a major step in making Connecticut affordable and attractive to business and residents. Indeed, in terms of issues that have captured the interest and support of state residents and business, the extortion of Connecticut business and residents by the public-utility monopolies is at the forefront — along with the extreme burden of property taxes on business and residents (especially the residents of our larger cities). And, of course, in a related vein, the condition of the public schools in underfunded big cities, such as Bridgeport, is also at the forefront, with the failing, underfunded school systems of our big cities being one of the major situations undermining the health and future of our state. Hopefully Josh Elliot is thinking in terms of effectively addressing this situation. How he will accomplish necessary property tax relief and a public-school system rescue for the cities is a conundrum, since it will involve a major revision of the system of revenue creation in the state (e.g., millionaires tax) even as a massive effort to recruit major tax base to the state (especially to the cities) is effected.
Of course, we are talking about a comprehensive, long-term, renaissance plan to reverse the negative course of the state’s future. Such a plan will present as a major, radical upheaval of the status quo in a stodgy, oligarchic state presently run by a stodgy, oligarchic executive branch of state government.
If Josh Elliot wants to unseat a powerful, well-financed, not-unpopular governor such as Ned Lamont, he will have to present an exciting vison for our state, and a believable plan to take us there. It will have to be radical, but rational, with details of implementation that make it believable — especially to the voter-residents of our failing major cities and struggling suburban and rural areas.
Good luck to Josh Elliott in his effort to remake our state in a modern image and bring prosperity back to our residents as he rebuilds our economy. (Let’s hear your vision/plan and
details, Josh!)