Russo Poll Shows Wide Open Race

Republican Congressional candidate Rob Russo released the results of a campaign poll that’s not good news for incumbent Democrat Jim Himes.

The poll shows Himes has a 13-point lead over Russo who’s not well known in Connecticut’s Fourth Congressional District that covers most of Fairfield County. As the Republican candidate, whether Russo or his chief rival for the GOP nomination State Senator Dan Debicella, increases name recognition the race will tighten. The question is can Russo and Debicella improve their fund raising efforts. Here’s the bigger problem for Himes, when the following question was asked –In the upcoming fall election for Congress do you think Jim Himes should be reelected or is it time for someone new?–the results show 35 percent reelect Himes and 42 percent someone new. This tells me Himes is fighting a wave against Washington inaction.

The good news for Himes is he’s raising  a lot of dough to make his case for reelection. I generally do not run poll results without reviewing the complete questionnaire. The Russo campaign released the entire questionnaire to OIB. The sampling (300) is on the low side for a congressional district but includes responses from a balanced cross-section of voter makeup. I’m also familiar with the data collection company Western Wats that was hired for the sampling. OIB also published results of an internal poll conducted by the Himes campaign in the weeks leading up to his defeat of Chris Shays in 2008.

News release below from the Russo campaign:

New Poll Results for CT-4

Himes Weak Heading into November Election

Fairfield – Today, the Russo for Congress campaign released the results of a poll conducted on February 3rd and 4th.

“Voters in Connecticut are rejecting Jim Himes’ tax-and-spend votes with Nancy Pelosi.” Rob Russo said in response to the results of the poll. “I am the Republican in the strongest position to defeat Jim Himes.”

Overall Poll Summary:

Jim Himes is in a weak position heading into the November elections as best evidenced by his 36% job approval rating. Voters are clearly angry at Congress and the direction the country is headed. Voters want an alternative.

The race for the Republican nomination is wide open with Rob Russo currently polling strongest against Jim Himes. While neither Dan Debicella nor Rob Russo have high Name ID throughout the district, it is clear Rob Russo has the stronger foundation on which to continue building.

Key Poll Findings:

· 74% of the people in the district disapprove of the job that Congress is doing.

· The Economy and Taxes-and-Spending are the top two issues that are affecting the vote for Congress.

· Only 35% of the people surveyed believe that Jim Himes should be re-elected

· Equal amount of people approve of Jim Himes job in Congress as disapprove (Approve 36%, Disapprove 33%)

· In a head-to-head match-up against Rob Russo, Jim Himes only has a 13-point advantage and does not break 50%. (Himes 43%, Russo 30%)

· Rob Russo has higher Name ID and performs better against Jim Himes than Dan Debicella showing the Republican Primary is wide open. (Russo name ID 23%, Debicella 14%)

Western Wats conducted the poll on behalf of the Russo for Congress campaign. Western Wats has done extensive polling for candidates in Connecticut at the local level including most recently, Trumbull First Selectman Tim Herbst’s successful campaign.