Q Poll: Malloy And Foley In Dead Heat

The Q Poll released today shows 2010 Republican nominee Tom Foley tied with Democratic Governor Dan Malloy eight months from the general election. The larger problem for Malloy in this poll is he has only modest leads against the other Republicans in the field who are not well known. That means there’s already a fixed built-in vote against him. The good news for Malloy, female voters, the largest voting bloc in the state, have not abandoned him. Look for him to continue hitting on issues that play well with women including the minimum wage. From Q Poll:

Tom Foley dominates the crowded Republican primary field in the Connecticut governor’s race and is locked in a 42 – 42 percent dead heat with Democratic Gov. Dannel Malloy, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

There is a large gender gap as women back the Democrat 45 – 37 percent while men go Republican 48 – 39 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Foley leads 83 – 9 percent among Republicans and 45 – 33 percent among independent voters while Gov. Malloy takes Democrats 79 – 10 percent.

Malloy gets a 48 percent approval rating from Connecticut voters, while 45 percent disapprove. Voters are divided 45 – 46 percent on whether he should be reelected.

Foley leads a Republican primary with 36 percent. His nearest competitor is Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton with 11 percent. No other candidate tops 6 percent and 35 percent of Republican voters remain undecided.

Malloy tops other possible Republican challengers by margins ranging from 6 to 11 percentage points.

Connecticut voters give their governor a 46 – 43 percent favorability rating. Foley gets a 38 – 21 percent favorability. For other Republican candidates, anywhere from 72 percent of voters to 89 percent don’t know enough to form an opinion.

“Haven’t we seen this movie before? A potential rematch of Gov. Dannel Malloy vs Tom Foley couldn’t get any closer,” said Douglas Schwartz, PhD, director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

“Foley dominates other Republicans vying for the nomination, who have little statewide recognition,” Dr. Schwartz added. “One potential problem for Foley is if he gets bloodied during the primary process. For Malloy, perhaps the biggest worry is that he’s never been able to get over 50 percent in job approval–a danger sign for any incumbent.”

Looking at Malloy’s personal qualities, Connecticut voters say:

60 – 35 percent that he has strong leadership qualities;

59 – 33 percent that he is honest and trustworthy;

50 – 45 percent that he cares about their needs and problems.

President Obama’s Approval

Connecticut voters give President Barack Obama a negative 45 – 51 percent approval rating, his lowest score ever in the state. There is a wide gender gap as men disapprove 57 – 40 percent rating while women are divided, with 49 percent approving and 47 percent disapproving.

The president gets a negative 7 – 92 percent from Republicans and a negative 38 – 57 percent from independent voters, while Democrats approve 80 – 16 percent. He gets a lukewarm 49 – 43 percent approval from voters 18 to 29 years old and negative grades among older voters.

Minimum Wage

Connecticut voters support 71 – 25 percent raising the state’s minimum wage. Support is 93 – 6 percent among Democrats and 73 – 23 percent among independent voters, with Republicans opposed 53 – 41 percent. Support is 78 – 18 percent among women, 64 – 32 percent among men and 69 percent or higher among all age groups.

Offered four choices:

42 percent want to increase the minimum wage to $10.10 per hour;

8 percent want to increase it to something less than $10.10 per hour;

20 percent want to increase it to more than $10.10 per hour;

25 percent want no increase.

A minimum wage increase would help rather than hurt Connecticut’s economy, voters say 47 – 28 percent. Republicans say 57 – 17 percent that it would hurt the economy.

From February 26 – March 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,878 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percentage points. The survey includes 477 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

Full survey: www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=2015