Q Poll: Malloy 43, Foley 42

From the Q Poll:

Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy is locked in a repeat of the 2010 down-to-the-wire governor’s race as he holds 43 percent of likely voters to Republican challenger Tom Foley’s 42 percent, with 9 percent for independent candidate Joe Visconti, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 43 – 43 percent dead heat among likely voters in an October 8 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

With Visconti out of the race, it’s a 45 – 45 percent tie today.

The gender gap is wide in the three-way race as Gov. Malloy leads Foley 51 – 32 percent among women, with 9 percent for Visconti, while Foley leads Malloy 53 – 34 percent among men, with 9 percent for Visconti.

Independent voters are divided with 38 percent for Foley, 36 percent for Malloy and 16 percent for Visconti. Malloy tops Foley among Democrats, 81 – 11 percent, with 4 percent for Visconti. Foley beats Malloy 85 – 6 percent among Republicans, with 6 percent for Visconti.

With 13 days until the election, 81 percent of Connecticut likely voters who name a candidate say their mind is made up, while 18 percent say they might change their mind. Their minds are made up, say 86 percent of Malloy voters and 84 percent of Foley backers, while 49 percent of Visconti supporters say they might change their mind.

“The race for Connecticut governor looks very much like it will go down to the wire–again,” said Douglas Schwartz, PhD, director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

“Republican Tom Foley has to be concerned that this is the first likely voter poll in which Gov. Dannel Malloy has a numerical edge, even though it’s razor-thin.”

“As expected, Democrats and Republicans are coming home with both Malloy and Foley winning at least 80 percent of their bases, but the independent voters are really up for grabs, with independent Joe Visconti now taking 16 percent of the independent vote,” Dr. Schwartz added.

“The gender gap is now a huge 38 points, with men going to Foley by 19 points and women for Malloy by 19 points.

Connecticut likely voters give both major party candidates negative favorability ratings:
• Malloy gets a negative 42 – 50 percent favorability, virtually unchanged from October 8;
• Foley gets a negative 40 – 46 percent favorability, down from his split 41 – 39 percent score two weeks ago;
• 80 percent of voters still don’t know enough about Visconti to form an opinion, compared to an 86 percent “don’t know enough” rating two weeks ago.

“The other bad news for Tom Foley is that his favorability rating continues to tumble,” Schwartz said. “For the first time, more voters have a negative view of him than a positive view. The more voters get to know him, the less they like him.

“The good news for Foley is that Malloy’s favorability is actually slightly worse.

“The Connecticut race recently was rated the most negative in the nation, and voters are giving a thumbs down to both major party candidates. With voters not liking either candidate very much, some voters could just choose the lesser of two evils. The dislike of Malloy and Foley helps explain why independent candidate Joe Visconti is holding onto 9 percent, at least for now.”