Two weeks left to Democratic primary day. Where do we stand?
Discussions with operatives inside the campaign camps of Mayor Joe Ganim and opponent John Gomes bestow cautious optimism. This is the piece of the campaign that becomes grinding: poising mail pieces, balancing negative and positive messaging, launching digital advertising, knocking doors, working absentee ballots, tallying lock votes to yank out primary day.
Four years ago in the tight primary between Ganim and State Senator Marilyn Moore it was easier to break down the race examining the two state senate districts occupying Bridgeport. Moore had a base of support in the 22nd Senatorial covering the North End, West Side and Black Rock. It was assured she’d perform well there. The other piece of the city became Ganim territory because Moore was much less known.
Overall, Moore won the walk-in vote, but lost via absentee ballots. Could that happen again in the Ganim-Gomes battle?
This one is trickier to parse because Gomes, not an elected official, brings no institutional base of support to the table. That doesn’t mean he cannot wage a strong contest. He certainly has money and workers led by a base of former Ganim allies who’ve parted ways with the mayor. Contrasts drive voter interest. Do they want something new or are they satisfied that the incumbent deserves another four-year contract.
Gomes echoes change, Ganim trumpets progress.
How the camps contrast those arguments generally settles these things.
The Gomes camp is weighing heavily on education voters who feel the incumbent has not invested enough in schools. Education is a key issue but not overriding in other corridors such as taxes, city services, public safety, economic development.
Let’s look at neighborhoods this time around by senate district breakdown.
Will Gomes clobber Ganim in Black Rock the way Moore did four years ago? If that happens Gomes will have a good night because it’s representative of higher home ownership neighborhoods that backed Moore such as Brooklawn and North End, largely because of her constituency representation that pulled away from the mayor.
But, what if they simply vote their wallets? Ganim has not raised taxes this term. Those sections of the city don’t know Gomes as well as Moore who failed to qualify for the September primary.
If they vote their pocketbooks Ganim will certainly perform stronger this time around.
Now let’s segue to the other side of the city. Could Gomes, highlighting the education issue score points in areas where taxes don’t loom as large?
What about neighborhood battlegrounds? The Upper East Side 138th District, featuring the Hooker and JFK precincts, is certainly a hot spot, garnering intense absentee ballot action. It’s the domain of City Councilwoman Maria Pereira who’s with Gomes. Both sides are working it hard.
The 137th is also key, home to the largest block of Hispanic voters. City Council President Aidee Nieves, supporting Ganim, is well regarded in her district. The Gomes camp believes it can make inroads there, based on what they say is positive reaction at doors, including education.
The 139th District is East End territory with a strong bloc of Black voters. Veteran pols and City Council representatives Ernie Newton and Eneida Martinez are backing Ganim. Gomes has no council candidates working it for him there. Is this an area where Ganim can run up a number?
Then there’s the machinations of absentee ballots. It appears Ganim has an edge in this area and if that materializes the next two weeks it places a premium on Gomes running up a walk-in vote.
So this race is still very much a work in progress two weeks out. It depends how everything comes together.
One thing is for sure, many more slings and arrows coming in final weeks.
The results of this primary have been watered down. No matter how you vote, it won’t produce a winner.
Voters know this. The candidates’ methods have reached the saturation point, leaving only a void.
A petitioning candidate values the voters time and asks them to vote only once.
Politics is a never-ending chess game.
LE,
If there is a void, it is the confusion you spread when “a saturation point” of candidate methods becomes a “Void”, perhaps.
Democracy calls for elections, eligible voters who are registered, adequate information about those running for office, and a chance to hear their comments as they compete pre-election day. And we both know that this year lots of folks are competing only because Ganim2 did not change his methods of governance that included failure to timely and fully appoint Boards and Commissions to their full complements, present public reports face to face with his public and take questions about methods and results, and for his entire return to leading municipal governance understand how months, years, and primary school careers have been spent by youth and families receiving less attention than due them fiscally and developmentally from THE MAYOR.
Will registered Democrats look at his avoidance of FAIR Rents and FAIR Housing nominations and State reports that are due from a Mayor of 20 year duration? Will they fail to grade him negatively for allowing ACTING department leadership to run off the tracks? Do they understand that the status quo for City employment does not bring out the best from those selected for jobs, nor does it allow employees to register their comments routinely as a matter of course without resorting to legal action and the court system? Does anyone require more evidence of a Mayor not caring about the things his constituents care about? Vote for the candidate of your choice, certainly. But check all of your facts first. Time will tell.
I though I was bringing sanity not confusion to the debate.
For political enthusiasts like myself, the saturation point is when campaign productivity ends and voter annoyance begins. I’m a self-styled expert on these things
I asked BARD (A.I.) to summarize JML’s latest post. Gere’s the response:
Sure, here is the summary of the text you provided:
The author is criticizing the incumbent mayor, Ganim2, for his lack of transparency and accountability in his governance. The author argues that Ganim2 has failed to appoint Boards and Commissions in a timely manner, has not presented public reports to the community, and has not adequately addressed the needs of youth and families. The author also criticizes Ganim2 for not complying with state regulations and for allowing Acting department leadership to run “off the tracks.” The author concludes by urging voters to check their facts before voting and to ask themselves if Ganim2 cares about the things his constituents care about.
Here are some specific points that the author makes:
Ganim2 has failed to timely and fully appoint Boards and Commissions.
Ganim2 has not presented public reports face to face with his public and take questions about methods and results.
Ganim2 has not adequately addressed the needs of youth and families.
Ganim2 has avoided FAIR Rents and FAIR Housing nominations and State reports that are due from a Mayor of 20 year duration.
Ganim2 has allowed ACTING department leadership to run off the tracks.
The status quo for City employment does not bring out the best from those selected for jobs, nor does it allow employees to register their comments routinely as a matter of course without resorting to legal action and the court system.
The author’s main point is that Ganim2 is not a good mayor and that he does not care about the things his constituents care about. The author urges voters to check their facts before voting and to ask themselves if Ganim2 is the right person to lead the city.
JML is an A.I.-endorsed blogger, according to me!
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/wild-gun-battle-on-connecticut-street-sends-dozens-running-3-wounded/4617985/?fbclid=IwAR0y5TbnwkOrJQfytuKtr8Fsq01hFtd0v1pgwlik5ycS3kJ975Hv04Rkt-Y
You forgot to mention crime. Ganim’s failure to prepare for retirements by increasing hiring and address the police contract to retain officers has placed citizens at risk.