Campaign Pain–“I Can’t Wait Until It’s Over”

Two weeks left to the general election for mayor and the refrain is consistent from every campaign camp: “I can’t wait until it’s over!” (Some of us don’t want this surreal campaign cycle to end!) Supporters of Mayor Bill Finch were saying the same thing before the September Democratic primary, just let it be over, not realizing in fact it would end a lot faster than they had imagined. Campaign workers are tired and stressed working in overdrive. Campaigns of this nature are like a controlled frenzy in search of an edge.

Time to take a little inventory and raise a few questions, like …

It’s as though the scribes and editors at the CT Post, which has only one full-time reporter covering the state’s largest city, the accomplished Brian Lockhart, have collectively decided “we were soft on Joe Ganim during the primary so we’re turning up the heat in the general election.” Last Sunday ghostly reporter Bill Cummings–who wrote nary a word on the mayoral race prior–pulled out his blowtorch under the ominous lead header Legacy of Greed that recounted Ganim’s felonious credentials as mayor. Was Ganim’s core support moved off him by the article? Or maybe his core support in African American precincts doesn’t subscribe to the paper? Did the story register with unaffiliated voters?

On Sunday it was cheeky writer Neil Vigdor’s turn, surmising on the front page the state Republican party is trying to stimulate a Ganim win so they can convert him cynically into the poster child of corruption in future statewide elections. Republicans aiding Ganim’s election could be a weapon used against Joe leading to election day, but who’s going to make that happen? Some of these free media stories are only as good as what political operatives do to leverage them afterwards.

It appears, barring a dramatic development, Ganim’s greatest enemy on Nov. 3 is complacency. Ganim tactfully galvanized the anti-Finch vote while inspiring new voters to the polls in the primary based on a second-chance message of stabilizing taxes, bringing crime under control and repairing potholes and sidewalks. Ganim really didn’t say anything compelling, he simply worked a very personal retail campaign 24/7 that also inspired a potent volunteer campaign operation opposed to Finch. But Finch is not on the ballot. And some voters believe Ganim has this election nailed. Will some Ganim supporters stay home while the anti-Ganim vote engages?

Ganim’s chief opponents, petitioning candidate Mary-Jane Foster and Republican Enrique Torres, are trying to inspire voters to view them as viable alternatives to Ganim.

Foster ran a credible Democratic primary against Finch in 2011, having been outspent two to one. She did not take advantage of her first run, entering the primary season late while Finch and Ganim poached a number of her supporters. Still, she has life emerging from a third place primary showing to become Ganim’s closest rival, backed by Finch, business community money and reformers opposed to Ganim’s return. She also has the support of several members of Bridgeport’s elected delegation to the state legislature which is key in bringing home dollars from Hartford. Her path to victory requires that she secure roughly two-thirds of Finch’s 5,800 primary votes and a solid majority of unaffiliated voters. Can she create enough doubt about Ganim in the final two weeks to pull off a historic win as a petitioning candidate?

Torres is a popular figure in Black Rock, that cool waterfront hamlet that is the most active neighborhood politically in the city. By percentage, it’s the highest turnout area of the city. If Torres were running for mayor of Black Rock he’d do mighty fine. Torres and Foster will likely run ahead of Ganim in Black Rock. But what’s his strength outside his core neighborhood?

Torres had Finch pretty much head to head four years ago in securing about 30 percent of the vote in the general election, benefiting largely from an anti-Finch spillover from the primary coupled with a small turnout of unaffiliated voters and a Republican base outflanked by Dems 10 to 1. What’s changed this time around for Torres? A little more money? A few more policy initiatives? His effort is earnest, for sure, but what support does he enjoy in African American and Latino districts that’s different from his previous runs for mayor, especially against a strong retail politician like Ganim and Foster’s campaign presence?

For harried campaign staffers, it will be over in two weeks, except of course for the winning campaign, followed by a four-week transition to governing. And political campaigns and governing are not the same. But that’s another story.