A distressing buzz is swarming the State Capitol, particularly among Republican political operatives.
How in the world do we save our vulnerable state legislative veterans among a Democratic supermajority let alone snatch some wins with no GOP statewide officers staring into the growing crescendo of a blue wave tsunami in November?
The question hanging over the midterm election cycle: are these tremors, or the early pull of a riptide?
What happens in DC does matter in Connecticut and we are seeing the impact across the state, even on a municipal level once GOP proud points.
Democratic mayoral candidate David Chess defeats Republican incumbent Laura Hoydick in Stratford. A few months later, in a special election for Fairfield first selectman, Democrat Christine Vitale lances Republican State Senator Tony Hwang.
Now in his fifth Senate term, Hwang has historically run ahead of the partisan baseline through retail politics and cross-party appeal. But presidential mid-cycle gravity can swallow even well-tended brands.
Then there’s the open-lane GOP seat occupied by State Senator Ryan Fazio, a candidate for governor, in Connecticut’s 36th District, including Greenwich, Stamford and New Canaan. That seat could flip to the Dems.
Let’s turn to Republican Jason Perillo, a member of the state legislature for 20 years who won a close special election about one year ago over Democrat Tony Afriyie in the 21st Senate District covering Stratford, Shelton, Monroe and Seymour.
Keep in mind this was just one month after Donald Trump returned to the presidency predating the penetrating issues of affordability now in focus, just about everything rising: groceries, rents (if you can find one) utilities, healthcare. Good grief, even pet food prices exploding. How’s your fishbowl doing?
Perillo’s district is historically a solidly purple-red region where MAGA interests may carry sway in a primary but against a fired-up electorate in a general election, particularly the large bloc of unaffiliated voters swinging Democratic, hugely problematic to keep the seat in GOP hands.
Yes, trotting out affordability solutions on the stump can be a tasty tool, but sometimes all you need is a decent candidate with a gift for gab who simply talks about the things pissing people off.
Now when an incumbent looks vulnerable primaries could loom. Will MAGA interests take on Hwang and Perillo? That would be dicey for the incumbents in micro-targeted primaries where Trumpism is relevant. MAGA candidates may win the primaries but then die the gooey death in the general election.
When incumbents wobble, adversaries probe. An FOI request aimed at Perillo, the State Office of Legislative Management and Senate Republicans over an internal complaint involving a legislative aide is the kind of storyline that may prove trivial—or compelling —depending on what surfaces and how it’s framed. Will the request for information be released or blocked? In modern politics, someone’s fascination is someone else’s reality.
That tension is magnified by history. In 2021, the State Elections Enforcement Commission levied a $10,000 penalty, one of the largest fines against an elected official, tied to an improper donation and coordination findings involving an independent expenditure committee. Perillo paid the fine rather than wage a longer, expensive legal fight. For opponents, it’s ready-made contrast material; for supporters, old news unless revived.
Such committees may spend unlimited amounts of money on behalf of electing or defeating a candidate for public office but cannot coordinate directly with the campaign over messaging, strategy and how money will be spent, etc.
So, in these challenging times for Republican incumbents, the reelection campaigns of Hwang and Perillo are a worthy watch.
Whether that’s enough if a true surge materializes is the unanswered question. Wave elections have a way of turning solid swimmers into sinkers.
Trump is like Kryptonite for the Republican party; how sweet it is!