POTUS Factor Versus Foley’s Follies

Four years ago, three days before the general election, Barack Obama touched down in Bridgeport, which touched off Democratic enthusiasm elevating Dan Malloy to the governorship over Republican Tom Foley. Will history repeat itself?

Just like four years ago, this race is a nail biter with both sides biting down on negative attacks. The main difference this time from last is President Obama’s overall standing with voters. His approval rating four years ago wasn’t great, but even less this time around as evidenced by organizers cautiously choosing the Central High School venue that’s one quarter of what filled the Webster Bank Arena.

Now those organizers are saying privately judging by the reaction to Obama’s visit turning away requests for tickets that the arena might have been jammed. Obama is not popular with Republicans and unaffiliated voters, but he’s still a rock star among most Democrats. The goal here is to energize a lethargic midterm base and, among the more than 1000 tickets made available to the general public (the rest go to party insiders), hundreds came to Bridgeport from all over Connecticut to stand in line for hours for a ticket to see the POTUS.

These things cut both ways, however, in determining a presidential visit. Do you fire up the other side by sticking the president in their face? Ultimately it comes down to simple math. Dems outflank Republicans in traditionally blue Connecticut. Dems benefit most if they can turn voter fatigue into fire. Stay reasonably close among unaffiliated voters and it’s a ballgame. That’s a big question mark.

The reality is, by any measure of voter outlook, this governor’s race should be over, stick a fork in Malloy and hand Foley the keys to the mansion. But it’s not over. Essentially, half the electorate, according to polls, is on Foley’s side out of sheer loathing of Malloy. Only Foley’s sheer ineptitude as a candidate and disengagement from the reality of governmental life has kept Malloy in the game for a possible second four-year term.

It’s almost like the less Foley says, the better off he is.

Foley initially talked a good game about an urban agenda that included lifting up underperforming students but then a commercial about school reform featured him surrounded by a bunch of blue-eyed blond-haired kids from the suburbs. Instead of looking into the camera and saying “Unfortunately we have two Connecticuts, one where per-pupil spending lifts up children and the other that keeps kids behind,” he shows a major disconnect from reality.

And then his education plan declares he will take money away from failing schools. When a reporter asked Foley how he expects to lift up failing schools by cutting funds he responded he did not know, no one ever asked him that question. Some of this falls on Foley’s campaign strategists. Knock knock, anyone home?

The Malloy people pounced. The business liquidator who closed shops, put people out of work filling his own pockets will shut down schools like all those mills.

This race seems like it’s once again going down to the final margins. Foley may very well become governor, but it appears he will do so despite himself.

Unless, of course, Dem voter fatigue turns into fire.