Four weeks from today, assuming local election officials certify Mary-Jane Foster’s petition signatures for ballot approval, roughly 43,000 city Democrats have a choice to make: give Mayor Bill Finch a new four-year contract or blow him out for Foster. The Democratic primary turnout in 2007, in a two-man field, was 25 percent.
If the turnout hits 25 percent again that would represent roughly 10,500 votes cast. Finch received just over 4500 votes in 2007 in a close win over Chris Caruso. The Democratic registration, courtesy of Barack Obama, is up from four years ago.
Historically the road for a mayoral challenge candidate to take out the endorsed candidate/incumbent is the horseshoe that runs from Black Rock to the West Side, over to the North End and then the Upper East Side. Why? It’s the higher turnout areas of the city where the anti-incumbent vote shows up. For Foster to perform well she must run up numbers in her home precinct Black Rock and then follow the horseshoe and remain relatively competitive in the rest of the city. The Finch forces are actively identifying positive votes for the mayor to turn them out on primary day while Foster received a huge boost with an endorsement from John Gomes last week that makes the race a two-candidate field.
In 2003 and 2007 the Democratic mayoral primary turnout hit 50 percent in Black Rock which has grown as a Democratic precinct from its yesteryear as a dominant Republican dominion. The Central precinct is split between two districts in the city’s West Side that includes the high-turnout Brooklawn area. Central, like Black Rock, runs far ahead of the average city turnout. So too in the North End where Winthrop and Blackham Schools are among the high-turnout areas of the city as well as the Lake Forest voting area. The horseshoe completes in the Upper East Side with Hooker School, the area east of the Beardsley Park area.
In 2007, Finch benefited from a hefty plurality, albeit low turnout, in Latino districts such as Marin School on the East Side. What about the East End such as Dunbar (Caruso won) and Harding (Finch won)? Lots of African American voters there. East End District Leader Ralph Ford supports Finch, but his long-time friend former State Senator Ernie Newton’s in the Foster camp.
An interesting battleground will be former State Rep. Chris Caruso’s old legislative district in the lower lower North End/Whiskey Hill area where the Big Wave ran up a large number in 2007, including the Wilbur Cross precinct. Caruso, now working for Governor Malloy’s administration, is not playing in this primary. Will he endorse? Foster is not expected to run as well as Caruso in those areas. State Senator Ed Gomes, who sat out the 2007 primary, is a pivotal Foster supporter in the Caruso precincts.
The stretch run has officially begun. We’re awaiting word from local election officials if the more than 3,000 signatures submitted by the Foster camp produce enough good Hancocks to qualify for the ballot. She needs roughly 2100 certified signatures from registered city Dems for ballot clearance.
I like that, Lennie; Black Rock being a yesteryear precinct and now a Democratic stronghold. Not even Black Rock school Republicans stand a chance. In 2008 Obama swepT that school easily … Obama 1,567 and McCain 702. Obama won by more than a 2 to 1 margin! In 2010 Malloy beat Foley easily at Black Rock and the margins would have been higher if they did not run out of ballots. Malloy 1,002 and Foley 545. Black Rock is a solid Democratic precinct and I am a proud voter at Black Rock.
donj, that was one election. I seriously doubt Obama or Malloy would win Black Rock again by those numbers. Both have failed miserably in their respective jobs. The city, state, and country voted for change, and we got it, all for the worse. Is anyone better off since either of them took office? Are taxes higher? Are people still losing jobs and houses? I’m sure the tide will turn against both of them in their runs for re-election. 2012 for Obama and a few years off for Malloy.
I still have to wonder, will Danny Roach be the odd maker and get Finch a healthy turnout for Finch at Black Rock? No doubt Foster will win Black Rock but by how much? Longfellow school Roach can make a big difference, remember Finch blew away Caruso at Longfellow. I will be voting for Foster and I am spreading the word to get out and vote!!!
I will not cast my vote at Black Rock this year, I have to vote by absentee so let’s just hope they count my vote for Foster. The only thing Bill Finch has going for him is name recognition. I sure hope Foster wins because we cannot afford another four years of Bill Finch.
donj, let’s go for coffee. I’ll bring your AB application.
Golly Gee, LG
You forgot to mention the John Gomes effect in da Hollow, East Side and Hooker areas. Must’a been a unINTENTIONAL slip.
Good point. Lennie, how does the Gomes factor affect the primary?
Gomes factors in by not being on the ballot, period. Turnout is important but the biggest turnout better be poll watchers.
The Gomes factor means the anti-Finch vote will not be split between two candidates. The people who were with Gomes I am sure are disappointed he dropped out of the race but in doing so he helped Bridgeport tremendously.
tc nailed it. Gomes’ strong and loyal following will now vote MJ and there’s no split. Too bad LG didn’t mention it at all.
Good point. Noted and amended.
The John Gomes faction brings a tremendous field operation in what will amount to hand-to-hand combat against Finch. A WINNING strategy!
The only reason this race is tight is because a tremendous number of calamarian jobs depend on Finch being reelected. In Lennie speak … if I’m a calamarian who draws a paycheck from the city, I’m gathering everybody I know to register and go to the polls.
Foster has a formidable task ahead to counter the motivated calamarian voters.
Clearly, she and her crew are essential to the renaissance of Bridgeport. Without the creation of votes from the historically apathetic she has a problem.
Not to mention all the money Mario puts out on the streets.
Foster’s main argument is corruption just like Caruso and she will lose just like him.
NORTH45
Caruso had no proof. Foster does. Big difference. After you get done cleaning the toilets at Finch HQ tell him he screwed too many people from his party since being elected. A lot of these people know where the skeletons are. So, El Squid, think twice before any money gets “put on the street.”
They’re back, NORTH45; look, we know MJF is no good according to you but tell us something POSITIVE about why we should vote for Mayor Finch. This is the fourth time I have asked you this question.
How’s this: Voting for Finch keeps NORTH45 employed.
Not just corruption, the claim for which she has backed up with proof, but also a string of broken promises, failed schools, a downtown that looks like a ghost town and economic development going backward instead of forward. She balances this message with a vision for the future. Ms. Foster is not only very, very different from Caruso but many of those same people who helped get Finch elected last go ’round are working hard for MJF this time.
Fringuello senza palle!
Corruption is only one of Ms. Foster’s arguments. Several Connecticut Post writers have detailed Mr. Finch’s crooked dealings with William Beccaro. The latter has remained silent despite repeated calls from the newspaper to answer a few questions about People for Excellence in Government, the money laundry disguised as a political action committee.
Mr. Finch cannot run on a record of achievement, since he has nothing to show for four years in office.
The difference is MJF has a jobs policy, an education policy, a big umbrella, believes in democracy, supports ALL voices being heard, is honest, thoughtful, kind, intelligent and thinks before she speaks. Oh yeah–she can also prove all the CORRUPTION in black and white and it’s read all over, conspiracies, SEEC fillings, investigative reports, dismantling school boards to prevent a vocal minority from being a majority, taking away people’s right to vote. It is one think to yell corruption and quite another to prove it. Also MJF is not yelling corruption alone, the people, the press, Seec investigates, court proceeding, who’s next, the FBI?
NORTH45 being on here proves Bird and his worms are nervous. The bases are covered in all areas except the North End. Would be nice to see Caruso and/or Ganim lend a voice for MJ in that area.
A message to Bill Finch aka The Bridgeport Pied Piper: As long as you don’t mess with the little people, Joel “Speedy” Gonzalez won’t come running into your town.
www .youtube.com/watch?v=eDOBlbgPFLk
The elimination of Gomes adds clarity by making it Finch versus Foster, one-on-one. Foster, as challenger, must overtake an incumbent, Finch. There is no guarantee the removal of Gomes makes it easier for Foster.
In any case, candidate organization counts. In a low-turnout primary, candidate organization counts more. The “unanimous” town committee endorsement of Mayor Finch hides easy markers of strength and weakness of Finch and Foster. They probably both like it that way.
This, of course, ignores issues and personality. But without an organization (and the money to pay for it), issues and personality rarely determine outcome.
The mayor has a political organization, nominally headed by Mario. From recent results, it’s a pretty weak organization. Then again, political organizations have a way of working DOWN to opposition. You don’t pay for more votes than you need. It is, or at least was, a divided group banded together by Mario’s personality, less than the mayor’s. It may be enough that the organization largely owes their jobs to the mayor.
Foster’s campaign has shown some intelligence in creating a counter-organization, certainly on challenging the mayor on issues. She’s done well on that. Her campaign knows the art form. With any incumbent, there is plenty of material to choose from. They have chosen well so far.
The mayor won’t counter-attack, if he chooses to counter-attack, for another week or two. There’s been nothing but BS so far to touch up the opponent. I expect more if they want to wake up more people. Maybe they don’t.
There is one issue, and the mayor has made it an issue: The Board of Education.
It certainly is a race that would be fun to cover.
Jim, it makes it easier in one respect as MJF doesn’t have to worry about splitting the anti-Finch vote.
An election is never a certain thing. This one could go either way at this point. There are more than a few people who owe their livelihoods to Bill Finch and will vote accordingly. By hiring them to the municipal payroll he has essentially bought their votes. This is unethical but not illegal.
There is more than one issue, Jim. The BOE clusterfuck is one. Finch’s wise-assed remark “democracy doesn’t always work” because many Bridgeport parents are illegal immigrants or criminals created another issue. The Latino community took umbrage at the reference to undocumented aliens. We all should take exception to that comment. It was and is racist, bigoted and xenophobic. It also demonstrates just how out of touch this mayor is.
Another is the PAC. The Foster campaign has done their homework on this, making complaints based on documented evidence, not hearsay.
“Examining The Election Horseshoe.” Lennie, does this mean you are a ‘blacksmith?’
“Despite cuts in state funding, Mayor Finch has done what no other city government has been able to do–balancing the city budget while holding property taxes down.” Good job Mayor, you have earned my vote once again.
Elections ARE funny. We have Joel. They have NORTH45.