Decoding The State Senate Battle To Replace Moore

In two weeks, with early voting starting August 5, Democratic primary voters will head to the polls for three key state legislative races in the region, two involving incumbents and the other a four-way battle to replace a retiring Marilyn Moore in Connecticut’s 22nd Senatorial involving Bridgeport, Trumbull and Monroe.

The camps of the four candidates – law school professor Sujata Gadkar-Wilcox, former Mayor Bill Finch, City Councilman Scott Burns and ex councilman Tyler Mack – will all spend more than $120,000, most of it coming from Connecticut’s Citizens Election Program of publicly funded races.

Essentially this race is about three Bridgeport-centric candidates albeit Finch by far the best known and with roots in Trumbull and Gadkar-Wilcox with name-rec strength from prior runs for state office in Trumbull.

The Bridgeport potion of the district encompasses the North End, West Side and Black Rock, roughly one third of the city.

Burns, for many years co-chair of the Budget & Appropriations Committee, is well known in Bridgeport’s 130th council district featuring Black Rock and portion of the West End. Likewise, Mack is newly minted in Black Rock having moved in from an adjoining district. He works for Congressman Jim Himes and has the backing of Moore. But history shows Moore’s support is not transferrable. Many she has backed have not won.

The key question for both Burns and Mack: presumably they will do well in Black Rock, after that what’s next? They are both largely unknown elsewhere, be it Bridgeport and especially Trumbull and Monroe. Can they manufacture a resonating issue to connect with voters the final two weeks? The good news, they have moolah to make their case.

That leaves Finch and Gadkar-Wilcox. Finch represented the district for about seven years, defeating Republican Lee Scarpetti in the 2000 general election, prior to becoming mayor. He has amassed a number of union endorsements based on his eight years as Bridgeport’s chief executive. Intriguingly, so far, the Finch brain trust has focused not on what he brought back to the district when he served it, but more a national-issue slant taking on the establishment, focusing on social issues and those who feel left behind.

Gadkar-Wilcox is running the most personalized campaign: I’m a city girl from Queens, the product of immigrants, attended law school and relocated to Connecticut to raise a family, serve on local boards and commissions, teach constitutional law to provide a check on the powerful. She’s the only candidate to conduct news conferences focused on election reform, stemming absentee ballot abuses, emphasizing the tri-community district as a regional economic development hub and coalescing relationships to bring back more dollars from Hartford for education.

She has landed endorsements including former State House members from Bridgeport – Chris Caruso, Bob Keeley and Lee Samowitz. Who cares, you say? It matters in low turnout primaries, especially for a candidate campaigning in Bridgeport for the first time. She also has energized young campaign workers to her cause.

Gadkar-Wilcox will do well in the suburbs. Bridgeport? Winning is relative. Can she stay close enough in Bridgeport and run up margins in the suburbs.

Based on history, name recognition, relationships, Finch should perform well in Bridgeport and finish second in suburbs.

So this comes down to the amount of vote splitting in Bridgeport. If it’s spread out, Gadkar-Wilcox is a threat to win.