Chalk-Boarding The Fourth Vote For Mayor

Less than two weeks to the Feb. 27 special general election, time to take inventory.

What started five months ago in the first Democratic mayoral primary has played out for what will be a fourth vote for mayor following a court-ordered redo of the process. After a primary scare and then first general election tight vote again, Mayor Joe Ganim righted the campaign ship with a convincing 12-point primary do-over win against John Gomes.

Ganim will occupy the top line, followed by Republican David Herz and Gomes on the Bridgeport Independent Party line C.

Former Finch administration official Lamond Daniels opted not to renew his general election ballot spot as a petitioning candidate. Roughly 70,000 registered voters are eligible, but the likelihood is a fraction of that will participate, perhaps 20 percent depending on the weather.

With the breeze at his back, Ganim is doing what Ganim does best: retail politics spreading across all neighborhoods to turn out the 5,000 votes he secured in last month’s primary and woo like-minded voters among all other remaining registered electors. Ganim has gone to the fundraising well four times but leveraging power of incumbency and coming off a nice primary win should bank enough resources to cover the campaign infrastructure basics while highlighting his tax and development initiatives.

Gomes fundraising well has run dry. After last month’s primary loss many prior donors that helped build a $400K war chest have bailed. This places a premium on Gomes’ volunteer force to churn out a vote, no easy task. Gomes aspires a number of things: reaching a broader electorate seeking change and a wedge issue that shakes up the outlook in the final days. In this crazy, extended municipal cycle, ya never know.

Gomes on social media in recent days has dangled financial promises to taxpayers, pledging $600 tax cuts per household. A phantasm, yes, especially with his troth to increase school funding substantially. When a candidate is stuck financially and strategically, these things get pushed out.

A pattern has emerged from the prior three votes. Gomes performs generally strongest in the north and western portions of the city, Ganim elsewhere, with a few outliers. Gomes big precinct is Black Rock, the waterfront hamlet anathema to Ganim for years. This is more a Ganim anti-vote than Gomes pro perspective. You could place Osama Bin Laden on the ballot in Black Rock and a majority of the privileged, Ivy-league educated piety would vote against Ganim. Same for the sister precinct Geraldine Claytor in the lower end of the 130th District.

Ganim cuts into Gomes positive territory on the West Side, West End and North End precincts covering the 131st through 134 districts. After that it’s largely Ganim turf in districts 135 through 139, heavily Black and Hispanic areas of Whiskey Hill, East Side and East End.

Ganim shook the bugaboo off his back last month winning the walk-in vote, something that escaped him the prior two votes, elevated by absentee ballots.

Speaking of that both camps once again are working it with Ganim likely to have another advantage with the mail-in vote.

So, it’s advantage Ganim but this thing is not a lock because of the twists and turns associated with this cuckoo-bird extended election season.

As for Republican David Herz, he announced he would withdraw his name from the ballot, saving taxpayers about $125,000 to finance another election, if Gomes did the same. Gomes decided to stay on so no harm, no foul for Herz who runs with little resources.